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13 posts tagged “results”.

results trading polymarket

Weekly Trading Results Archive — Every Week, Including the Losing Ones

Rolling archive of ZenHodl's weekly live Polymarket results — record, per-sport P&L and win rate for every week, losing weeks included.

results polymarket trading

Polymarket Trading Bots in the Wild: A Full Breakdown of Our On-Chain P&L by Market Type

Corrected: our Polymarket trading bots are not profitable in aggregate. See the full retraction and per-market-type P&L breakdown, kept for reference.

polymarket calibration results

Comparing Polymarket Odds to ZenHodl Win Probabilities Across 5,000 Games

ZenHodl's calibrated win probabilities vs Polymarket's market odds across 5,000+ resolved games — where they agree, diverge, and what it means.

research market-efficiency polymarket

What Our Live Results Say About Market Efficiency in Sports Prediction Markets

A year of live trading data on Polymarket — what it reveals about sports prediction market efficiency, where systematic mispricing persists, and where the...

comparison calibration nba

Why We Can't Retroactively Benchmark NBA First Round 2026 — And Why That's The Point

Why the pre-committed NBA Playoffs benchmark starts at the Conference Semis: adding First Round after tip-off would un-freeze a frozen test.

comparison calibration nba

We Just Pre-Committed to Beating Polymarket on NBA Playoffs Calibration. The Hash Is On-Chain.

We just announced and on-chain anchored a 7-week head-to-head benchmark: ZenHodl's NBA model vs the live Polymarket consensus, every Conference Semis...

calibration results research

We Audited 21 Sports Prediction Sources. Only 1 Publishes Their Calibration Error.

Our April 2026 survey of selected prediction sources examined public calibration evidence. Read the dated findings, criteria and limits.

ncaamb results calibration

Our NCAAMB Model's 2025-26 Season Report: 5,345 Games Backtested, 68.2% Accuracy, ECE 4.39%

Our college basketball model backtested on all 5,345 non-tournament games of 2025-26: 68.2% accuracy, Brier 0.2064, ECE 4.39%, full reliability table.

polymarket trading results

Our Polymarket Trading Results: An Early Snapshot, and a Correction

An April 2026 snapshot of our Polymarket bots, plus a correction: the win rate and the on-chain claim were wrong. The live ledger is on /results.

nba machine-learning results

How We Predict NBA Games with Machine Learning

Inside ZenHodl's NBA prediction engine: XGBoost models, team stats, real-time injury overlays, and isotonic calibration. How our ML system processes...

polymarket trading strategy

How Our Polymarket Trading Bots Work — Strategy, and a Correction

Our bots' architecture, plus a correction: this post once published a +$2,400 P&L that was never true. Real figure: -$217.75 over 2,214 live trades.

results debugging polymarket

How We Improved 5 Trading Bots in One Week

We audited every bot, found the gaps between backtest and live performance, and fixed them. CS2, NBA, MLB, LoL, and Tennis — five different problems, five...

results polymarket trading

We Run 5 Bots Across 8 Sports — Here's What's Actually Profitable

Real P&L from 5 live Polymarket bots trading NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAMB, CS2, LoL, Tennis, and Soccer. Honest about what works and what doesn't.