Live Recalibration Overhaul — Runtime Fixes, Calibration, Backtests
Critical Runtime Fixes: Repaired the live recalibrator path, fixed settlement-time type errors, and updated tennis trade logging so those jobs no longer fail at runtime.
Recalibration Activated: Seeded recalibration history across all 11 supported sports so live calibration can run immediately instead of waiting on an empty buffer.
Calibration Improved: Major ECE improvements landed across tennis, CS2, and core US sports after the recalibration rollout and model cleanup.
Backtests Refreshed: Re-ran tennis, NFL, LoL, and CS2 backtests against the updated stack and disabled CFB after consistently negative results.
Tennis Model Tuning: Tightened dampening, raised WTA minimum edge, added a between-sets filter, and blended surface-specific Elo into match pricing.
Trade Logging Expanded: Tennis trades now store surface and best_of for downstream analytics and review.
Dependency Alignment: Updated local scikit-learn to match production and removed an inference error affecting MLB and CFB locally.
v10.0April 8–10, 2026
Billing, Payments, Attribution, and Model Upgrades
NBA and NHL Retrained: Fixed missing team-stat inputs at inference, rebuilt the feature pipeline, and retrained both models with the intended data.
NHL Injury Overlay: Added a live skater injury adjustment layer sourced from ESPN to support pre-trade price corrections.
NBA Impact Table Expanded: Updated the star-impact map to cover more rotation players and current-season breakouts.
Live Recalibration: Added rolling isotonic recalibration per sport with periodic auto-refits and persisted history.
Security Hardening: Fixed unsubscribe auth, webhook SSRF checks, escaping, CSP, session cookies, and logout CSRF handling.
Backtest Integrity Pass: Regraded the public backtests, rebuilt LoL against real prices, fixed NFL split ordering, and synced public numbers to the corrected results.
State-Aware Pages: Personalized pricing, course, and recovery actions by user state.
Dashboard and Results UX: Added richer filtering, detail drawers, clearer status indicators, and better mobile behavior.
Monitoring Agents: Added automated reconciliation, entitlement, deployment, and strategy checks on cron.
Cache Pipeline: Improved stale pruning, sport normalization, active-market caching, and publish quality gates.
Purchase Fulfillment: Standardized confirmation emails, webhook account creation, and re-download access across products.
v7.0April 4, 2026
CS2 Audit, Domain Migration, and Performance Cleanup
CS2 Audit and Refiltering: Tightened CS2 entry rules after live results exposed slippage, underdog bias, and thin-edge problems.
CS2 Rating Rebuild: Rebuilt the CS2 Elo base to expand team coverage and remove stale-rating failure cases.
Domain Migration: Moved the primary site from api.zenhodl.net to zenhodl.net and updated redirects, canonicals, sitemap, and emails.
Performance Pass: Added compression, long-lived asset caching, deferred scripts, and lighter proof media to improve page speed.
Claim Sync: Replaced stale public performance claims with the current backtest source of truth across product pages and emails.
Model Quality API:/v1/model/performance — Brier score, ROC-AUC, ECE, accuracy, and full conformal calibration tables for all 11 sports
CLV Tracking:/v1/model/clv — live closing line value tracking. Measures how often our entry price beats the final market price
Confidence Intervals: All prediction endpoints now include calibrated prediction bands from conformal prediction tables. Width narrows as games progress
Venue Status:/v1/venues — real-time status of all connected data venues (Polymarket, Kalshi, DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.)
Venue Filter:?venue=kalshi on /v1/games and /v1/edges to filter by specific venue
Intraday WP Snapshots:/v1/snapshots/{sport}/{date} — win probability archived every 30s during live games (Pro+ tier)
Batch Predictions:/v1/predictions/batch — bulk download predictions for up to 90 days (Pro+ tier)
Webhook Push:/v1/webhooks — register URLs to receive edge signals in real-time via signed POST requests (HMAC-SHA256)
Course Rating System: Star ratings + written reviews at /course/rate with social proof widget on course page
NFL Model Fix: Corrected season ordering bug where 2020-21 test set was older than training data (data leakage eliminated)
Bot Safety: Circuit breaker (daily loss limit + streak detection), bankroll depletion check, WS/ESPN staleness guards, performance dashboard every 10 min