Hedge Calculator

Enter your existing position and the current price of the opposite side. We compute guaranteed P&L if you hedge, and flag free-money cases.

Your Existing Position

Shares Bought (Side A)
How many YES (or NO) contracts you bought
Entry Price A (¢)
¢
Price per share when you bought

Hedge Side (Opposite)

Current Price B (¢)
¢
Ask price for the opposite contract
Taker Fee per Share (¢)
¢
Polymarket ~2¢, Kalshi varies. Set 0 to ignore.
Free Profit Opportunity
Pair cost is below $1: if both legs fill at these prices, the position pays $1 at resolution regardless of outcome. That is arithmetic, not a promise — it assumes both fills, and ignores fees and the chance the second leg moves before you get it. In our own cross-venue study such windows existed in 0.36–0.39% of snapshots, and the median edge after crossing both spreads was negative.

Hedge Outcome

Pair Cost per Share
Hedge Cost (Total)
P&L if Side A Wins
P&L if Side B Wins

Positive either way at these prices, if both legs fill. You gave up upside in exchange for eliminating outcome variance — you have not eliminated execution risk: the second leg can move before you get it, and fees come out of this figure.

Hedging now locks in a loss — the pair cost exceeds $1 plus fees. Only do this if bankroll preservation matters more than EV.

Hedge vs. Let It Ride

Hedge Now
Guaranteed:
Zero variance
Hold to Resolution
Win:
Lose:

Hedge gives up of upside in exchange for eliminating of downside.

When hedging is the right move

Hedge when
  • Pair cost < $1 (free profit)
  • Position is oversized for bankroll
  • Opposite price has overshot fair
  • Edge already realized (you rode the move)
Don't hedge when
  • You still have edge vs opposite price
  • Pair cost > $1 + fees and bankroll is fine
  • You're hedging out of fear, not math
  • Position is Kelly-sized on a healthy roll

Full math + worked examples in our how to hedge a sports bet guide.

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