Live Trading Results

Real trades. Real money. Auto-refreshes every 60s. 2026-03-09 to 2026-04-12.

Filtered Public Ledger | Start: March 9, 2026 | Updated 2m ago | Reconciliation: 50 stale | 734 excluded rows
342 resolved trades · 58.8% WR · Bot-attributed only · Backfill + shadow excluded · On-chain wallet

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342 trades · 58.8% win rate · Verified on PolygonScan · 7-day free trial

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Live trades are executed on Polymarket's blockchain

This is a filtered view of bot-attributed trades only, starting March 9, 2026. Manual and backfilled entries are excluded.

The on-chain wallet contains all wallet activity including manual trades, test transactions, and other operations. This page shows a subset. For full wallet history, use PolygonScan.

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Wallet: 0xc2a2D9267F13A7eFb2B1B527eCB4D8240a7823a0 (Gnosis Safe v1.3.0)

342
Resolved
201
Wins
141
Losses
58.8%
Win Rate
+3.6c
c/Trade
$89.31
Net P&L
5
Open Positions
14
Awaiting Settlement

Live Trading Results (Real Money)

Cumulative P&L ($)

By Sport

Sport Trades W L Win Rate c/Trade Net P&L
NBA 14 6 8 42.9% -18.0c $24.43
TENNIS 6 6 0 100.0% +35.0c $21.96
ATP 29 18 11 62.1% +13.3c $18.45
NHL 61 40 21 65.6% +5.0c $16.13
MLB 94 64 30 68.1% +6.2c $14.81
LOL 37 20 17 54.1% +8.8c $8.72
NCAAMB 4 4 0 100.0% +27.2c $4.85
SOCCER 11 5 6 45.5% +0.6c $0.93
CS2 82 35 47 42.7% -6.2c $-7.98
NCAAWB 4 3 1 75.0% +20.0c $-12.99

By Strategy

Bot Trades Win Rate c/Trade Net P&L
moneyline_wp 177 66.1% +4.7c $47.23
tennis_wp 35 68.6% +17.1c $40.41
lol 37 54.1% +8.8c $8.72
soccer_wp 11 45.5% +0.6c $0.93
cs2 82 42.7% -6.2c $-7.98

Weekly

Week Trades W L Win Rate Net P&L
2026-W15 181 105 76 58.0% $10.32
2026-W14 146 85 61 58.2% $76.07
2026-W13 8 6 2 75.0% $-2.78
2026-W11 7 5 2 71.4% $5.70

Open Positions

5 Open Positions

Time Bot Sport Team Event Entry Fair Edge Size Tx
14:58 tennis_wp ATP Mena F. Santa Cruz: Lautaro Midon vs Facundo Men 54c 67c +16c 2.0 -
14:13 tennis_wp ATP Siegemund L. Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Laura Siegemu 49c 61c +15c 3.0 -
13:40 tennis_wp ATP McNally C. Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Caty M 44c 67c +25c 3.0 -
02:28 moneyline_wp MLB losangelesdodgers Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 57c 92c +38c 2.0
01:57 moneyline_wp MLB sandiegopadres Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres 70c 89c +22c 2.0

Distinct live positions only. Multiple fills on the same market are grouped into one position from 19 unresolved fills.

Awaiting Settlement

14 Awaiting Settlement

Age Bot Sport Team Event Size Status
7.8d moneyline_wp NHL capitals Sabres vs. Capitals 5.2 Unresolved for over 24h
7.8d lol LOL Sentinels LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Group Stag 2.9 Unresolved for over 24h
7.9d cs2 CS2 BIG Counter-Strike: BIG vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h
8.0d lol LOL LOUD LoL: LOUD vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Sea 1.4 Unresolved for over 24h
8.0d cs2 CS2 RED Canids Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gaimin Gladiators (B 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h
8.0d cs2 CS2 WW Team Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CIS LAN 3.2 Unresolved for over 24h
8.0d cs2 CS2 Galorys Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Galorys 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h
8.0d cs2 CS2 eLITenergy Counter-Strike: eLITenergy vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL C 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h
8.0d cs2 CS2 HEROIC Academy Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs HEROIC Academy (BO 3.2 Unresolved for over 24h
8.0d soccer_wp SOCCER home Stade Brestois 29 vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 3.5 Unresolved for over 24h
8.1d cs2 CS2 LFO Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs LFO (BO3) - CCT Europe Co 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h
8.1d lol LOL Team Vitality LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Re 2.8 Unresolved for over 24h
8.1d tennis_wp ATP Burruchaga R. US Men's Clay Court Championships: Thiago Agustin 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h
8.1d cs2 CS2 Legacy Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL B 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h

These rows are unresolved in the ledger but no longer treated as active exposure on the page.

Recent Trades

Date Bot Sport Team Entry Fair Edge Size P&L W/L Tx
2026-04-12 lol LOL Team Vitality 70c 78c +8c 1.4 $0.43 W -
Fair WP: 78c
Entry: 70c
Edge: +8c
Bot: lol
Event: LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
Side: BUY
Size: 1.4
P&L: $0.43
2026-04-12 soccer_wp SOCCER home 28c 46c +18c 3.6 $-1.00 L
Fair WP: 46c
Entry: 28c
Edge: +18c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC
Side: BUY
Size: 3.6
P&L: $-1.00
2026-04-12 tennis_wp ATP Sinner J. 37c 47c +10c 3.2 $2.04 W -
Fair WP: 47c
Entry: 37c
Edge: +10c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner
Side: BUY
Size: 3.2
P&L: $2.04
2026-04-12 soccer_wp SOCCER home 34c 47c +13c 2.9 $1.94 W
Fair WP: 47c
Entry: 34c
Edge: +13c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC
Side: BUY
Size: 2.9
P&L: $1.94
2026-04-12 soccer_wp SOCCER away 32c 43c +11c 3.1 $-1.00 L
Fair WP: 43c
Entry: 32c
Edge: +11c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC
Side: BUY
Size: 3.1
P&L: $-1.00
2026-04-12 lol LOL Relove Deep Cross Ga 36c 56c +23c 3.0 $-1.09 L -
Fair WP: 56c
Entry: 36c
Edge: +23c
Bot: lol
Event: LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Reg
Side: BUY
Size: 3.0
P&L: $-1.09
2026-04-12 lol LOL Ground Zero Gaming 45c 52c +9c 2.3 $-1.05 L -
Fair WP: 52c
Entry: 45c
Edge: +9c
Bot: lol
Event: LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO
Side: BUY
Size: 2.3
P&L: $-1.05
2026-04-12 lol LOL BNK FEARX 60c 75c +15c 1.7 $0.67 W -
Fair WP: 75c
Entry: 60c
Edge: +15c
Bot: lol
Event: LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Side: BUY
Size: 1.7
P&L: $0.67
2026-04-12 moneyline_wp MLB houstonastros 77c 86c +8c 2.1 $-1.60 L
Fair WP: 86c
Entry: 77c
Edge: +8c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $-1.60
2026-04-12 tennis_wp ATP Martinez P. 51c 71c +23c 2.0 $-1.02 L -
Fair WP: 71c
Entry: 51c
Edge: +23c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Barcelona Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Pedro Ma
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $-1.02
2026-04-12 moneyline_wp MLB bostonredsox 77c 88c +11c 2.1 $0.48 W
Fair WP: 88c
Entry: 77c
Edge: +11c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Boston Red Sox vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.48
2026-04-12 moneyline_wp MLB baltimoreorioles 60c 67c +5c 2.2 $0.87 W
Fair WP: 67c
Entry: 60c
Edge: +5c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles
Side: BUY
Size: 2.2
P&L: $0.87
2026-04-12 moneyline_wp MLB tampabayrays 49c 69c +6c 2.5 $1.27 W
Fair WP: 69c
Entry: 49c
Edge: +6c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Side: BUY
Size: 2.5
P&L: $1.27
2026-04-12 moneyline_wp NHL flames 55c 64c +12c 6.0 $-3.30 L
Fair WP: 64c
Entry: 55c
Edge: +12c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Flames vs. Kraken
Side: BUY
Size: 6.0
P&L: $-3.30
2026-04-12 moneyline_wp MLB clevelandguardians 58c 64c +5c 2.1 $0.88 W
Fair WP: 64c
Entry: 58c
Edge: +5c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.88
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp NHL flyers 52c 59c +9c 6.1 $2.94 W
Fair WP: 59c
Entry: 52c
Edge: +9c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Flyers vs. Jets
Side: BUY
Size: 6.1
P&L: $2.94
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp NHL flyers 52c 58c +8c 6.1 $2.94 W
Fair WP: 58c
Entry: 52c
Edge: +8c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Flyers vs. Jets
Side: BUY
Size: 6.1
P&L: $2.94
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp NHL bluejackets 61c 74c +14c 5.2 $2.05 W
Fair WP: 74c
Entry: 61c
Edge: +14c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens
Side: BUY
Size: 5.2
P&L: $2.05
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp NHL bluejackets 61c 74c +14c 5.2 $2.05 W
Fair WP: 74c
Entry: 61c
Edge: +14c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens
Side: BUY
Size: 5.2
P&L: $2.05
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp MLB athletics 76c 87c +10c 2.0 $0.48 W
Fair WP: 87c
Entry: 76c
Edge: +10c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Athletics vs. New York Mets
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $0.48
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp MLB athletics 75c 88c +11c 2.1 $0.52 W
Fair WP: 88c
Entry: 75c
Edge: +11c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Athletics vs. New York Mets
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.52
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp MLB cincinnatireds 78c 91c +13c 2.1 $0.46 W
Fair WP: 91c
Entry: 78c
Edge: +13c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.46
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp MLB cincinnatireds 78c 92c +14c 2.1 $0.46 W
Fair WP: 92c
Entry: 78c
Edge: +14c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.46
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp NHL blues 57c 69c +10c 5.4 $2.34 W
Fair WP: 69c
Entry: 57c
Edge: +10c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Blues vs. Blackhawks
Side: BUY
Size: 5.4
P&L: $2.34
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp NHL blues 57c 69c +10c 5.4 $2.34 W
Fair WP: 69c
Entry: 57c
Edge: +10c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Blues vs. Blackhawks
Side: BUY
Size: 5.4
P&L: $2.34
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp NHL predators 64c 92c +28c 5.2 $1.88 W
Fair WP: 92c
Entry: 64c
Edge: +28c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Wild vs. Predators
Side: BUY
Size: 5.2
P&L: $1.88
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp NHL predators 64c 92c +28c 5.2 $1.88 W
Fair WP: 92c
Entry: 64c
Edge: +28c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Wild vs. Predators
Side: BUY
Size: 5.2
P&L: $1.88
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp NHL redwings 69c 81c +12c 4.2 $-2.88 L
Fair WP: 81c
Entry: 69c
Edge: +12c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Devils vs. Red Wings
Side: BUY
Size: 4.2
P&L: $-2.88
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp NHL redwings 69c 81c +12c 4.2 $-2.88 L
Fair WP: 81c
Entry: 69c
Edge: +12c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Devils vs. Red Wings
Side: BUY
Size: 4.2
P&L: $-2.88
2026-04-11 moneyline_wp NHL kings 65c 82c +18c 5.2 $1.80 W
Fair WP: 82c
Entry: 65c
Edge: +18c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Oilers vs. Kings
Side: BUY
Size: 5.2
P&L: $1.80

Backtest Validation (2025-26 Season)

Simulated

What the v3 model would have traded this season using real ESPN game data. ESPN WP as market proxy + 0.5c spread, 2c fee + 1c slippage, hold to settlement. Subsampled every 5th row (25s polling), deduped, max 3/game. Full methodology in our research paper.

2625
Trades
1832
Wins
69.8%
Win Rate
+2.4c
Net c/Trade
$62.69
Net P&L
Sport Trades W Win Rate c/Trade Net P&L
NCAAMB 1237 948 76.6% +9.3c $78.55
NCAAWB 864 572 66.2% +2.2c $-6.68
NBA 238 146 61.3% +3.9c $2.17
NFL 286 166 58.0% -1.0c $-11.35
342 trades · 58.8% win rate · Verified on PolygonScan · Try the API free for 7 days
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Methodology

How the models work

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Data source: trades.jsonl written by live bots. Excludes shadow mode and backfill entries.

P&L is net of Polymarket fees. Updates automatically when trades resolve.

2026-03-09 to 2026-04-12 · 342 resolved · 5 open positions · 14 awaiting settlement