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Live Trading Results
Real trades. Real money. Every one on-chain. 2026-03-09 to 2026-05-27.
Filtered Public Ledger
|
Start: March 9, 2026
|
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Reconciliation: 16 stale
|
739 excluded rows
1588 resolved trades
·
48.4% WR
·
Bot-attributed only · Backfill + shadow excluded · On-chain wallet
Every trade below is logged on-chain. Get the signals that produce them.
1588 resolved trades · 48.4% win rate · $-110.47 net P&L · 7-day free trial, no CC required
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Live trades are executed on Polymarket's blockchain
This is a filtered view of bot-attributed trades only, starting March 9, 2026. Manual and backfilled entries are excluded.
The on-chain wallet contains all wallet activity including manual trades, test transactions, and other operations. This page shows a subset. For full wallet history, use PolygonScan .
Wallet: 0xc2a2D9267F13A7eFb2B1B527eCB4D8240a7823a0 (Gnosis Safe v1.3.0)
Live Trading Results (Real Money)
The chart above is live trade data
Worst day: $-31.64. We show it anyway.
A system that only shows wins is selling you something. Every signal that produced these trades is available via our API.
See Live Signals →
All
ATP
CS2
FLOW
LOL
MLB
NBA
NCAAMB
NCAAWB
NHL
SOCCER
TENNIS
WNBA
WTA
By Sport
Sport
Trades
W
L
Win Rate
c/Trade
Net P&L
TENNIS
6
6
0
100.0%
+35.0c
$21.96
NHL
112
69
43
61.6%
+3.3c
$16.52
WNBA
8
6
2
75.0%
+38.2c
$12.04
NBA
43
17
26
39.5%
-18.9c
$8.72
NCAAMB
4
4
0
100.0%
+27.2c
$4.85
FLOW
0
0
0
0%
+0.0c
$0.00
SOCCER
84
35
49
41.7%
-2.9c
$-7.15
NCAAWB
4
3
1
75.0%
+20.0c
$-12.99
MLB
303
164
139
54.1%
-1.6c
$-13.96
LOL
150
67
83
44.7%
-0.5c
$-20.57
CS2
319
149
170
46.7%
-4.0c
$-29.97
WTA
287
144
143
50.2%
-1.8c
$-35.69
ATP
268
105
163
39.2%
-6.2c
$-54.23
By Strategy
Bot
Trades
Win Rate
c/Trade
Net P&L
moneyline_wp
474
55.5%
-0.9c
$15.18
flow_check
0
0%
+0.0c
$0.00
soccer_wp
84
41.7%
-2.9c
$-7.15
lol
150
44.7%
-0.5c
$-20.57
cs2
319
46.7%
-4.0c
$-29.97
tennis_wp
561
45.5%
-3.5c
$-67.96
Weekly
Week
Trades
W
L
Win Rate
Net P&L
2026-W22
81
32
49
39.5%
$-23.57
2026-W21
230
97
133
42.2%
$-26.27
2026-W20
224
117
107
52.2%
$29.29
2026-W19
331
165
166
49.8%
$-48.59
2026-W18
62
14
48
22.6%
$-68.58
2026-W17
161
64
97
39.8%
$-61.94
2026-W16
138
67
71
48.6%
$-1.37
2026-W15
200
117
83
58.5%
$11.57
2026-W14
146
85
61
58.2%
$76.07
2026-W13
8
6
2
75.0%
$-2.78
2026-W11
7
5
2
71.4%
$5.70
Open Positions
2 Open Positions
Time
Bot
Sport
Team
Event
Entry
Fair
Edge
Size
Tx
23:08
moneyline_wp
WNBA
phoenixmercury
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty
35c
45c
+11c
3.2
12:50
lol
LOL
KIWOOM DRX
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX
43c
41c
+1c
2.5
-
Distinct live positions only. Multiple fills on the same market are grouped into one position from 18 unresolved fills.
Awaiting Settlement
16 Awaiting Settlement
Age
Bot
Sport
Team
Event
Size
Status
9.2d
flow_check
FLOW
X
e
1.0
Unresolved for over 24h
28.5d
tennis_wp
WTA
R. Sramkova
La Bisbal: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebecca Sramkova
2.1
Unresolved for over 24h
53.0d
moneyline_wp
NHL
capitals
Sabres vs. Capitals
5.2
Unresolved for over 24h
53.0d
lol
LOL
Sentinels
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Group Stag
2.9
Unresolved for over 24h
53.2d
cs2
CS2
BIG
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3
2.1
Unresolved for over 24h
53.2d
lol
LOL
LOUD
LoL: LOUD vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Sea
1.4
Unresolved for over 24h
53.2d
cs2
CS2
RED Canids
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gaimin Gladiators (B
2.1
Unresolved for over 24h
53.2d
cs2
CS2
WW Team
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CIS LAN
3.2
Unresolved for over 24h
53.2d
cs2
CS2
Galorys
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Galorys
2.1
Unresolved for over 24h
53.3d
cs2
CS2
eLITenergy
Counter-Strike: eLITenergy vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL C
2.1
Unresolved for over 24h
53.3d
cs2
CS2
HEROIC Academy
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs HEROIC Academy (BO
3.2
Unresolved for over 24h
53.3d
soccer_wp
SOCCER
home
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901
3.5
Unresolved for over 24h
53.3d
cs2
CS2
LFO
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs LFO (BO3) - CCT Europe Co
2.1
Unresolved for over 24h
53.3d
lol
LOL
Team Vitality
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Re
2.8
Unresolved for over 24h
53.3d
tennis_wp
ATP
Burruchaga R.
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Thiago Agustin
2.1
Unresolved for over 24h
53.3d
cs2
CS2
Legacy
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL B
2.1
Unresolved for over 24h
These rows are unresolved in the ledger but no longer treated as active exposure on the page.
Recent Trades
Date
Bot
Sport
Team
Entry
Fair
Edge
Size
P&L
W/L
Tx
2026-05-27
moneyline_wp
MLB sanfranciscogiants
64c
63c
+1c
2.0
$-1.28
L
Fair WP: 63c
Entry: 64c
Edge: +1c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $-1.28
2026-05-27
moneyline_wp
MLB sandiegopadres
51c
49c
+0c
2.0
$-1.02
L
Fair WP: 49c
Entry: 51c
Edge: +0c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $-1.02
2026-05-27
moneyline_wp
MLB miamimarlins
45c
43c
+0c
3.0
$-1.35
L
Fair WP: 43c
Entry: 45c
Edge: +0c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Side: BUY
Size: 3.0
P&L: $-1.35
2026-05-27
moneyline_wp
MLB stlouiscardinals
53c
51c
+0c
2.0
$-1.06
L
Fair WP: 51c
Entry: 53c
Edge: +0c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $-1.06
2026-05-27
moneyline_wp
MLB washingtonnationals
53c
51c
+0c
2.0
$-1.06
L
Fair WP: 51c
Entry: 53c
Edge: +0c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $-1.06
2026-05-27
cs2
CS2 TDK
67c
69c
+2c
2.1
$0.69
W
Fair WP: 69c
Entry: 67c
Edge: +2c
Bot: cs2
Event: Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.69
2026-05-27
cs2
CS2 Sharks
55c
56c
+1c
2.1
$0.95
W
Fair WP: 56c
Entry: 55c
Edge: +1c
Bot: cs2
Event: Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.95
2026-05-27
lol
LOL Solary
33c
52c
+19c
3.0
$-1.00
L
-
Fair WP: 52c
Entry: 33c
Edge: +19c
Bot: lol
Event: LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - LFL Playoffs
Side: BUY
Size: 3.0
P&L: $-1.00
2026-05-27
lol
LOL Berlin International
30c
54c
+24c
3.3
$2.33
W
-
Fair WP: 54c
Entry: 30c
Edge: +24c
Bot: lol
Event: LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playof
Side: BUY
Size: 3.3
P&L: $2.33
2026-05-27
lol
LOL Barcząca Esports
38c
39c
+1c
2.6
$-1.00
L
-
Fair WP: 39c
Entry: 38c
Edge: +1c
Bot: lol
Event: LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken (BO5) - Rift Legends Playo
Side: BUY
Size: 2.6
P&L: $-1.00
2026-05-27
cs2
CS2 Lilmix
34c
54c
+20c
3.3
$-1.11
L
Fair WP: 54c
Entry: 34c
Edge: +20c
Bot: cs2
Event: Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Lilmix (BO3) - European Pro
Side: BUY
Size: 3.3
P&L: $-1.11
2026-05-27
tennis_wp
WTA Elena Rybakina
32c
59c
+25c
3.5
$-1.11
L
-
Fair WP: 59c
Entry: 32c
Edge: +25c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elena Rybakina
Side: BUY
Size: 3.5
P&L: $-1.11
2026-05-27
tennis_wp
ATP Quentin Halys
46c
60c
+15c
3.1
$1.69
W
-
Fair WP: 60c
Entry: 46c
Edge: +15c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys
Side: BUY
Size: 3.1
P&L: $1.69
2026-05-27
tennis_wp
ATP Alex Michelsen
54c
64c
+10c
2.1
$0.97
W
-
Fair WP: 64c
Entry: 54c
Edge: +10c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.97
2026-05-27
cs2
CS2 SemperFi
61c
66c
+5c
2.1
$0.82
W
Fair WP: 66c
Entry: 61c
Edge: +5c
Bot: cs2
Event: Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3)
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.82
2026-05-27
tennis_wp
ATP Thanasi Kokkinakis
29c
34c
+5c
4.3
$-1.24
L
-
Fair WP: 34c
Entry: 29c
Edge: +5c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Side: BUY
Size: 4.3
P&L: $-1.24
2026-05-27
tennis_wp
ATP Miomir Kecmanovic
73c
79c
+6c
2.1
$-1.52
L
-
Fair WP: 79c
Entry: 73c
Edge: +6c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $-1.52
2026-05-27
cs2
CS2 NIP
68c
68c
+0c
2.1
$0.67
W
Fair WP: 68c
Entry: 68c
Edge: +0c
Bot: cs2
Event: Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.67
2026-05-27
cs2
CS2 magic
56c
56c
+0c
2.1
$0.93
W
Fair WP: 56c
Entry: 56c
Edge: +0c
Bot: cs2
Event: Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.93
2026-05-27
tennis_wp
ATP Mariano Navone
46c
62c
+15c
2.2
$-1.00
L
-
Fair WP: 62c
Entry: 46c
Edge: +15c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik
Side: BUY
Size: 2.2
P&L: $-1.00
2026-05-27
tennis_wp
ATP Andrey Rublev
77c
80c
+3c
2.1
$0.48
W
-
Fair WP: 80c
Entry: 77c
Edge: +3c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.48
2026-05-27
cs2
CS2 HEROIC Academy
29c
50c
+20c
4.4
$-1.28
L
Fair WP: 50c
Entry: 29c
Edge: +20c
Bot: cs2
Event: Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pr
Side: BUY
Size: 4.4
P&L: $-1.28
2026-05-27
tennis_wp
ATP Karen Khachanov
76c
77c
+0c
2.1
$0.51
W
-
Fair WP: 77c
Entry: 76c
Edge: +0c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.51
2026-05-27
tennis_wp
ATP Federico Cina
58c
67c
+10c
2.1
$-1.20
L
-
Fair WP: 67c
Entry: 58c
Edge: +10c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Jesper de Jong
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $-1.20
2026-05-27
tennis_wp
ATP Alejandro Davidovich
52c
64c
+12c
2.1
$-1.10
L
-
Fair WP: 64c
Entry: 52c
Edge: +12c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agu
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $-1.10
2026-05-27
lol
LOL Gen.G Esports
35c
38c
+3c
2.9
$1.86
W
-
Fair WP: 38c
Entry: 35c
Edge: +3c
Bot: lol
Event: LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Side: BUY
Size: 2.9
P&L: $1.86
2026-05-27
moneyline_wp
MLB sanfranciscogiants
35c
33c
+0c
3.0
$-1.05
L
Fair WP: 33c
Entry: 35c
Edge: +0c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Side: BUY
Size: 3.0
P&L: $-1.05
2026-05-27
moneyline_wp
MLB philadelphiaphillies
82c
90c
+10c
2.0
$0.36
W
Fair WP: 90c
Entry: 82c
Edge: +10c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $0.36
2026-05-27
moneyline_wp
MLB seattlemariners
82c
90c
+10c
2.0
$0.36
W
Fair WP: 90c
Entry: 82c
Edge: +10c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $0.36
2026-05-27
moneyline_wp
NHL goldenknights
61c
63c
+2c
2.1
$0.82
W
Fair WP: 63c
Entry: 61c
Edge: +2c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Avalanche vs. Golden Knights
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.82
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Backtest Validation (2025-26 Season)
Simulated
What the v3 model would have traded this season using real ESPN game data. ESPN WP as market proxy + 0.5c spread, 2c fee + 1c slippage, hold to settlement. Subsampled every 5th row (25s polling), deduped, max 3/game. Full methodology in our research paper .
Sport
Trades
W
Win Rate
c/Trade
Net P&L
NCAAMB
1237
948
76.6%
+9.3c
$78.55
NCAAWB
864
572
66.2%
+2.2c
$-6.68
NBA
238
146
61.3%
+3.9c
$2.17
NFL
286
166
58.0%
-1.0c
$-11.35
1588 trades ·
48.4% win rate ·
Verified on
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Data source: trades.jsonl written by live bots. Excludes shadow mode and backfill entries.
P&L is net of Polymarket fees. Updates automatically when trades resolve.
2026-03-09 to 2026-05-27 · 1588 resolved · 2 open positions · 16 awaiting settlement