Live Trading Results

Real trades. Real money. Auto-refreshes every 60s. 2026-03-09 to 2026-04-18.

Filtered Public Ledger | Start: March 9, 2026 | Updated 3m ago | Reconciliation: 53 stale | 739 excluded rows
473 resolved trades · 57.1% WR · Bot-attributed only · Backfill + shadow excluded · On-chain wallet

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473 trades · 57.1% win rate · Verified on PolygonScan · 7-day free trial

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Live trades are executed on Polymarket's blockchain

This is a filtered view of bot-attributed trades only, starting March 9, 2026. Manual and backfilled entries are excluded.

The on-chain wallet contains all wallet activity including manual trades, test transactions, and other operations. This page shows a subset. For full wallet history, use PolygonScan.

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Wallet: 0xc2a2D9267F13A7eFb2B1B527eCB4D8240a7823a0 (Gnosis Safe v1.3.0)

473
Resolved
270
Wins
203
Losses
57.1%
Win Rate
+2.3c
c/Trade
$101.85
Net P&L
2
Open Positions
14
Awaiting Settlement

Live Trading Results (Real Money)

Cumulative P&L ($)

By Sport

Sport Trades W L Win Rate c/Trade Net P&L
ATP 57 31 26 54.4% +6.3c $25.63
NHL 79 51 28 64.6% +4.6c $25.01
NBA 20 9 11 45.0% -18.1c $23.86
TENNIS 6 6 0 100.0% +35.0c $21.96
MLB 125 85 40 68.0% +5.9c $16.09
LOL 50 25 25 50.0% +4.5c $11.19
NCAAMB 4 4 0 100.0% +27.2c $4.85
SOCCER 16 6 10 37.5% -8.6c $-1.29
CS2 91 40 51 44.0% -3.9c $-2.86
WTA 21 10 11 47.6% -5.4c $-9.60
NCAAWB 4 3 1 75.0% +20.0c $-12.99

By Strategy

Bot Trades Win Rate c/Trade Net P&L
moneyline_wp 232 65.5% +4.0c $56.82
tennis_wp 84 56.0% +5.4c $37.99
lol 50 50.0% +4.5c $11.19
soccer_wp 16 37.5% -8.6c $-1.29
cs2 91 44.0% -3.9c $-2.86

Weekly

Week Trades W L Win Rate Net P&L
2026-W16 112 57 55 50.9% $11.29
2026-W15 200 117 83 58.5% $11.57
2026-W14 146 85 61 58.2% $76.07
2026-W13 8 6 2 75.0% $-2.78
2026-W11 7 5 2 71.4% $5.70

Open Positions

2 Open Positions

Time Bot Sport Team Event Entry Fair Edge Size Tx
03:43 moneyline_wp MLB texasrangers Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners 48c 67c +22c 4.0
03:34 moneyline_wp MLB arizonadiamondbacks Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbac 57c 71c +17c 4.0

Distinct live positions only. Multiple fills on the same market are grouped into one position from 16 unresolved fills.

Awaiting Settlement

14 Awaiting Settlement

Age Bot Sport Team Event Size Status
13.8d moneyline_wp NHL capitals Sabres vs. Capitals 5.2 Unresolved for over 24h
13.9d lol LOL Sentinels LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Group Stag 2.9 Unresolved for over 24h
14.0d cs2 CS2 BIG Counter-Strike: BIG vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h
14.1d lol LOL LOUD LoL: LOUD vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Sea 1.4 Unresolved for over 24h
14.1d cs2 CS2 RED Canids Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gaimin Gladiators (B 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h
14.1d cs2 CS2 WW Team Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CIS LAN 3.2 Unresolved for over 24h
14.1d cs2 CS2 Galorys Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Galorys 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h
14.1d cs2 CS2 eLITenergy Counter-Strike: eLITenergy vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL C 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h
14.1d cs2 CS2 HEROIC Academy Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs HEROIC Academy (BO 3.2 Unresolved for over 24h
14.1d soccer_wp SOCCER home Stade Brestois 29 vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 3.5 Unresolved for over 24h
14.1d cs2 CS2 LFO Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs LFO (BO3) - CCT Europe Co 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h
14.1d lol LOL Team Vitality LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Re 2.8 Unresolved for over 24h
14.1d tennis_wp ATP Burruchaga R. US Men's Clay Court Championships: Thiago Agustin 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h
14.2d cs2 CS2 Legacy Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL B 2.1 Unresolved for over 24h

These rows are unresolved in the ledger but no longer treated as active exposure on the page.

Recent Trades

Date Bot Sport Team Entry Fair Edge Size P&L W/L Tx
2026-04-18 lol LOL Relove Deep Cross Ga 32c 62c +27c 8.6 $5.83 W -
Fair WP: 62c
Entry: 32c
Edge: +27c
Bot: lol
Event: LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Reg
Side: BUY
Size: 8.6
P&L: $5.83
2026-04-18 moneyline_wp NBA suns 66c 82c +19c 4.0 $1.36 W
Fair WP: 82c
Entry: 66c
Edge: +19c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Warriors vs. Suns
Side: BUY
Size: 4.0
P&L: $1.36
2026-04-17 lol LOL Dark Passage 40c 62c +25c 8.1 $4.87 W -
Fair WP: 62c
Entry: 40c
Edge: +25c
Bot: lol
Event: LoL: Dark Passage vs BoostGate Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular S
Side: BUY
Size: 8.1
P&L: $4.87
2026-04-17 tennis_wp WTA Rebecca Sramkova 45c 68c +20c 5.7 $-2.55 L -
Fair WP: 68c
Entry: 45c
Edge: +20c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Oeiras 3: Rebecca Sramkova vs Petra Marcinko
Side: BUY
Size: 5.7
P&L: $-2.55
2026-04-17 tennis_wp WTA Suzan Lamens 53c 68c +16c 5.2 $-2.75 L -
Fair WP: 68c
Entry: 53c
Edge: +16c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Oeiras 3: Suzan Lamens vs Robin Montgomery
Side: BUY
Size: 5.2
P&L: $-2.75
2026-04-17 moneyline_wp MLB sandiegopadres 74c 80c +6c 3.1 $0.81 W
Fair WP: 80c
Entry: 74c
Edge: +6c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Side: BUY
Size: 3.1
P&L: $0.81
2026-04-17 moneyline_wp MLB houstonastros 58c 66c +11c 4.0 $-2.32 L
Fair WP: 66c
Entry: 58c
Edge: +11c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros
Side: BUY
Size: 4.0
P&L: $-2.32
2026-04-17 moneyline_wp NHL predators 59c 85c +25c 6.4 $-3.78 L
Fair WP: 85c
Entry: 59c
Edge: +25c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Ducks vs. Predators
Side: BUY
Size: 6.4
P&L: $-3.78
2026-04-17 moneyline_wp NHL jets 71c 80c +10c 5.1 $-3.65 L
Fair WP: 80c
Entry: 71c
Edge: +10c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Sharks vs. Jets
Side: BUY
Size: 5.1
P&L: $-3.65
2026-04-16 cs2 CS2 R2 41c 67c +26c 3.1 $-1.29 L
Fair WP: 67c
Entry: 41c
Edge: +26c
Bot: cs2
Event: Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South Am
Side: BUY
Size: 3.1
P&L: $-1.29
2026-04-16 moneyline_wp MLB athletics 60c 66c +6c 3.1 $-1.89 L
Fair WP: 66c
Entry: 60c
Edge: +6c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
Side: BUY
Size: 3.1
P&L: $-1.89
2026-04-16 soccer_wp SOCCER home 75c 85c +10c 1.3 $-1.00 L
Fair WP: 85c
Entry: 75c
Edge: +10c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga
Side: BUY
Size: 1.3
P&L: $-1.00
2026-04-16 moneyline_wp MLB losangelesangels 69c 71c +5c 3.0 $0.93 W
Fair WP: 71c
Entry: 69c
Edge: +5c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
Side: BUY
Size: 3.0
P&L: $0.93
2026-04-16 moneyline_wp MLB detroittigers 59c 62c +6c 3.0 $1.23 W
Fair WP: 62c
Entry: 59c
Edge: +6c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Side: BUY
Size: 3.0
P&L: $1.23
2026-04-16 moneyline_wp MLB chicagowhitesox 63c 66c +6c 3.0 $-1.89 L
Fair WP: 66c
Entry: 63c
Edge: +6c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox
Side: BUY
Size: 3.0
P&L: $-1.89
2026-04-16 moneyline_wp MLB pittsburghpirates 55c 60c +8c 4.0 $-2.20 L
Fair WP: 60c
Entry: 55c
Edge: +8c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Side: BUY
Size: 4.0
P&L: $-2.20
2026-04-16 lol LOL Bushido Wildcats 45c 80c +35c 6.7 $3.67 W -
Fair WP: 80c
Entry: 45c
Edge: +35c
Bot: lol
Event: LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Seas
Side: BUY
Size: 6.7
P&L: $3.67
2026-04-16 lol LOL GOAL esports 55c 92c +37c 5.5 $-3.00 L -
Fair WP: 92c
Entry: 55c
Edge: +37c
Bot: lol
Event: LoL: ALMO Players vs GOAL (BO2) - HLL Regular Season
Side: BUY
Size: 5.5
P&L: $-3.00
2026-04-16 tennis_wp WTA Karolina Muchova 50c 68c +18c 5.3 $2.65 W -
Fair WP: 68c
Entry: 50c
Edge: +18c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Elise Mertens
Side: BUY
Size: 5.3
P&L: $2.65
2026-04-16 moneyline_wp NBA clippers 80c 86c +9c 2.0 $-1.60 L
Fair WP: 86c
Entry: 80c
Edge: +9c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Warriors vs. Clippers
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $-1.60
2026-04-16 moneyline_wp NBA 76ers 63c 66c +6c 3.0 $1.11 W
Fair WP: 66c
Entry: 63c
Edge: +6c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Magic vs. 76ers
Side: BUY
Size: 3.0
P&L: $1.11
2026-04-15 moneyline_wp NHL rangers 57c 67c +12c 8.1 $3.50 W
Fair WP: 67c
Entry: 57c
Edge: +12c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Rangers vs. Lightning
Side: BUY
Size: 8.1
P&L: $3.50
2026-04-15 moneyline_wp NHL panthers 50c 65c +15c 9.5 $4.77 W
Fair WP: 65c
Entry: 50c
Edge: +15c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Red Wings vs. Panthers
Side: BUY
Size: 9.5
P&L: $4.77
2026-04-15 lol LOL Dorado Gaming 53c 74c +21c 5.7 $-3.00 L -
Fair WP: 74c
Entry: 53c
Edge: +21c
Bot: lol
Event: LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Citadel Gaming (BO3) - North American
Side: BUY
Size: 5.7
P&L: $-3.00
2026-04-15 tennis_wp WTA Katie Boulter 52c 68c +16c 5.3 $2.54 W -
Fair WP: 68c
Entry: 52c
Edge: +16c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Katie Boulter vs Jaqueline
Side: BUY
Size: 5.3
P&L: $2.54
2026-04-15 cs2 CS2 Vitality 36c 67c +30c 3.3 $-1.20 L
Fair WP: 67c
Entry: 36c
Edge: +30c
Bot: cs2
Event: Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Gro
Side: BUY
Size: 3.3
P&L: $-1.20
2026-04-15 moneyline_wp MLB stlouiscardinals 72c 86c +14c 2.1 $0.58 W
Fair WP: 86c
Entry: 72c
Edge: +14c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.58
2026-04-15 soccer_wp SOCCER away 36c 64c +28c 2.8 $-1.00 L
Fair WP: 64c
Entry: 36c
Edge: +28c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF
Side: BUY
Size: 2.8
P&L: $-1.00
2026-04-15 soccer_wp SOCCER home 64c 75c +11c 1.6 $-1.00 L
Fair WP: 75c
Entry: 64c
Edge: +11c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP
Side: BUY
Size: 1.6
P&L: $-1.00
2026-04-15 moneyline_wp MLB arizonadiamondbacks 64c 70c +6c 2.1 $0.75 W
Fair WP: 70c
Entry: 64c
Edge: +6c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.75

Backtest Validation (2025-26 Season)

Simulated

What the v3 model would have traded this season using real ESPN game data. ESPN WP as market proxy + 0.5c spread, 2c fee + 1c slippage, hold to settlement. Subsampled every 5th row (25s polling), deduped, max 3/game. Full methodology in our research paper.

2625
Trades
1832
Wins
69.8%
Win Rate
+2.4c
Net c/Trade
$62.69
Net P&L
Sport Trades W Win Rate c/Trade Net P&L
NCAAMB 1237 948 76.6% +9.3c $78.55
NCAAWB 864 572 66.2% +2.2c $-6.68
NBA 238 146 61.3% +3.9c $2.17
NFL 286 166 58.0% -1.0c $-11.35
473 trades · 57.1% win rate · Verified on PolygonScan · Try the API free for 7 days
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Methodology

How the models work

Read Methodology

Data source: trades.jsonl written by live bots. Excludes shadow mode and backfill entries.

P&L is net of Polymarket fees. Updates automatically when trades resolve.

2026-03-09 to 2026-04-18 · 473 resolved · 2 open positions · 14 awaiting settlement