This is the rolling log of our automated Polymarket trading, one section per week, newest first. It replaces the individual weekly posts we used to publish (their URLs redirect here). Three notes up front, so the numbers read honestly:
- Figures were computed at each week's end from live fills only — shadow/simulated trades (force-shadowed sports under evaluation) are excluded, and trades that settled after a week's snapshot can shift its final figures slightly. The canonical, always-current ledger is /results.
- Over the full live sample, our per-trade edge is not statistically distinguishable from zero. Read individual weeks — good and bad — as variance, not signal.
- Weeks 17–25 are absent because the weekly generator wasn't running then, not because the results were unfavorable; /results covers that span.
- Weeks 31–32 (Jul 21 – Aug 3) are also absent: the archive generator was dead for those two Mondays (a regression from our own v12.289/v12.290 deploy — root-caused and fixed in v12.292, which is why Week 33 resumed). Trades from those weeks are in the ledger; only the weekly write-ups are missing. Same policy as above: we document holes, we don't backfill pretty numbers.
Week 43 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-10-19
133 trades · 52W-81L · 39.1% win rate · -$36.36 net P&L across 5 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 5 | 4W-1L | n/a | 39.8c | +$6.40 |
| NHL | 20 | 12W-8L | 60.0% | 3.0c | +$0.85 |
| CFB | 14 | 4W-10L | 28.6% | -21.6c | -$7.03 |
| SOCCER | 26 | 8W-18L | 30.8% | -6.7c | -$8.66 |
| WTA | 68 | 24W-44L | 35.3% | -10.9c | -$27.92 |
Notable wins: tulane (CFB) 23c entry vs 30c fair; cardinals (NFL) 25c entry vs 40c fair; Katarzyna Kawa (WTA) 25c entry vs 29c fair.
Week 42 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-10-12
183 trades · 75W-108L · 41.0% win rate · +$5.09 net P&L across 8 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOCCER | 22 | 10W-12L | 45.5% | 10.5c | +$9.50 |
| MLB | 5 | 4W-1L | n/a | 26.4c | +$3.71 |
| WNBA | 4 | 3W-1L | n/a | 24.0c | +$2.22 |
| NHL | 20 | 11W-9L | 55.0% | 0.5c | +$2.09 |
| WTA | 88 | 34W-54L | 38.6% | -2.0c | +$2.05 |
| CFB | 22 | 9W-13L | 40.9% | -4.1c | -$0.95 |
| NFL | 4 | 1W-3L | n/a | -15.5c | -$1.25 |
| ATP | 18 | 3W-15L | 16.7% | -21.4c | -$12.28 |
Notable wins: home (SOCCER) 21c entry vs 35c fair; away (SOCCER) 25c entry vs 50c fair; southcarolina (CFB) 25c entry vs 31c fair.
Week 41 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-10-05
144 trades · 46W-98L · 31.9% win rate · -$10.98 net P&L across 5 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 5 | 4W-1L | n/a | 36.8c | +$5.05 |
| WTA | 94 | 33W-61L | 35.1% | 0.8c | +$2.48 |
| NFL | 7 | 3W-4L | n/a | -1.4c | +$0.33 |
| WNBA | 8 | 0W-8L | n/a | -37.0c | -$8.90 |
| ATP | 30 | 6W-24L | 20.0% | -10.6c | -$9.94 |
Notable wins: Hubert Hurkacz (ATP) 25c entry vs 36c fair; Matteo Berrettini (ATP) 25c entry vs 36c fair; Kyoka Okamura (WTA) 25c entry vs 35c fair.
Week 40 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-09-28
154 trades · 60W-94L · 39.0% win rate · +$14.33 net P&L across 6 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA | 98 | 37W-61L | 37.8% | 4.4c | +$11.91 |
| ATP | 13 | 6W-7L | 46.2% | 11.9c | +$4.68 |
| LOL | 2 | 1W-1L | n/a | 24.5c | +$2.03 |
| NFL | 8 | 3W-5L | n/a | -3.9c | -$0.73 |
| MLB | 27 | 12W-15L | 44.4% | -3.5c | -$1.29 |
| WNBA | 6 | 1W-5L | n/a | -19.0c | -$2.27 |
Notable wins: baltimoreorioles (MLB) 23c entry vs 37c fair; newyorkliberty (WNBA) 24c entry vs 31c fair; Mia Pohankova (WTA) 24c entry vs 28c fair.
Week 39 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-09-21
120 trades · 41W-79L · 34.2% win rate · -$1.51 net P&L across 4 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 15 | 6W-9L | 40.0% | 11.5c | +$8.57 |
| WNBA | 3 | 2W-1L | n/a | 32.3c | +$3.34 |
| LOL | 1 | 1W-0L | n/a | 74.0c | +$3.07 |
| WTA | 101 | 32W-69L | 31.7% | -3.0c | -$16.49 |
Notable wins: arizonadiamondbacks (MLB) 22c entry vs 36c fair; cincinnatireds (MLB) 23c entry vs 38c fair; newyorkyankees (MLB) 23c entry vs 36c fair.
Week 38 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-09-14
94 trades · 38W-56L · 40.4% win rate · +$12.46 net P&L across 3 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA | 86 | 35W-51L | 40.7% | 3.8c | +$11.44 |
| MLB | 7 | 3W-4L | n/a | 10.6c | +$2.14 |
| LOL | 1 | 0W-1L | n/a | -28.0c | -$1.12 |
Notable wins: stlouiscardinals (MLB) 22c entry vs 36c fair; Rositsa Dencheva (WTA) 25c entry vs 37c fair; Tessa Johanna Brockmann (WTA) 26c entry vs 36c fair.
Week 37 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-09-07
43 trades · 17W-26L · 39.5% win rate · +$2.62 net P&L across 2 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA | 42 | 17W-25L | 40.5% | 1.9c | +$3.78 |
| LOL | 1 | 0W-1L | n/a | -28.0c | -$1.16 |
Notable wins: Zheng Qinwen (WTA) 19c entry vs 31c fair; Anastasia Potapova (WTA) 25c entry vs 35c fair; Emma Navarro (WTA) 25c entry vs 29c fair.
Week 36 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-08-31
136 trades · 56W-80L · 41.2% win rate · +$21.29 net P&L across 3 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA | 123 | 51W-72L | 41.5% | 4.8c | +$20.85 |
| LOL | 2 | 1W-1L | n/a | 24.5c | +$1.99 |
| WNBA | 11 | 4W-7L | 36.4% | -2.2c | -$1.55 |
Notable wins: Arantxa Rus (WTA) 25c entry vs 34c fair; Mariam Bolkvadze (WTA) 25c entry vs 34c fair; Kylie Collins (WTA) 25c entry vs 40c fair.
Week 35 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-08-24
38 trades · 14W-24L · 36.8% win rate · -$3.54 net P&L across 1 sport.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA | 38 | 14W-24L | 36.8% | -1.8c | -$3.54 |
Notable wins: Sara Bejlek (WTA) 25c entry vs 30c fair; Maya Joint (WTA) 27c entry vs 34c fair; Diane Parry (WTA) 30c entry vs 35c fair.
Week 34 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-08-17
82 trades · 34W-48L · 41.5% win rate · +$5.00 net P&L across 1 sport.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA | 82 | 34W-48L | 41.5% | 1.8c | +$5.00 |
Notable wins: Lucrezia Stefanini (WTA) 25c entry vs 30c fair; Sofia Kenin (WTA) 26c entry vs 26c fair; Katerina Siniakova (WTA) 28c entry vs 34c fair.
Week 33 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-08-10
36 trades · 14W-22L · 38.9% win rate · +$0.01 net P&L across 2 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOL | 1 | 1W-0L | n/a | 74.0c | +$2.96 |
| WTA | 35 | 13W-22L | 37.1% | -3.0c | -$2.95 |
Notable wins: Maya Joint (WTA) 24c entry vs 36c fair; Sentinels (LOL) 26c entry vs 40c fair; Justina Mikulskyte (WTA) 26c entry vs 37c fair.
Week 30 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-07-20
18 trades · 4W-14L · 22.2% win rate · -$5.93 net P&L across 2 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOL | 4 | 1W-3L | n/a | -6.2c | -$0.31 |
| WNBA | 14 | 3W-11L | 21.4% | -12.0c | -$5.62 |
Notable wins: portlandfire (WNBA) 28c entry vs 37c fair; Senshi eSports (LOL) 30c entry vs 40c fair; goldenstatevalkyries (WNBA) 42c entry vs 46c fair.
Week 29 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-07-13
20 trades · 8W-12L · 40.0% win rate · +$4.07 net P&L across 2 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 18 | 7W-11L | 38.9% | 3.7c | +$2.07 |
| LOL | 2 | 1W-1L | n/a | 10.5c | +$2.00 |
Notable wins: Hanwha Life Esports (LOL) 25c entry vs 33c fair; portlandfire (WNBA) 25c entry vs 30c fair; connecticutsun (WNBA) 31c entry vs 37c fair.
Week 28 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-07-06
46 trades · 25W-21L · 54.3% win rate · -$2.93 net P&L across 3 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOL | 1 | 1W-0L | n/a | 74.0c | +$2.85 |
| WNBA | 9 | 4W-5L | n/a | 2.3c | +$1.88 |
| MLB | 36 | 20W-16L | 55.6% | -6.8c | -$7.66 |
Notable wins: T1 (LOL) 26c entry vs 36c fair; washingtonmystics (WNBA) 26c entry vs 30c fair; clevelandguardians (MLB) 33c entry vs 32c fair.
Week 27 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-06-29
79 trades · 40W-39L · 50.6% win rate · -$6.72 net P&L across 2 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 21 | 9W-12L | 42.9% | 4.2c | +$3.51 |
| MLB | 58 | 31W-27L | 53.4% | -3.2c | -$10.23 |
Notable wins: phoenixmercury (WNBA) 26c entry vs 40c fair; seattlestorm (WNBA) 26c entry vs 33c fair; phoenixmercury (WNBA) 28c entry vs 43c fair.
Week 26 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-06-22
90 trades · 43W-47L · 47.8% win rate · -$10.66 net P&L across 5 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA | 11 | 6W-5L | 54.5% | 6.4c | -$0.80 |
| WNBA | 19 | 8W-11L | 42.1% | -0.6c | -$0.90 |
| MLB | 52 | 28W-24L | 53.8% | -0.4c | -$0.95 |
| NHL | 1 | 0W-1L | n/a | -36.0c | -$1.17 |
| CS2 | 7 | 1W-6L | n/a | -36.3c | -$6.84 |
Notable wins: washingtonmystics (WNBA) 28c entry vs 32c fair; atlantabraves (MLB) 28c entry vs 29c fair; losangelesangels (MLB) 30c entry vs 29c fair.
Week 16 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-04-13
201 trades · 118W-83L · 58.7% win rate · +$14.97 net P&L across 7 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHL | 40 | 28W-12L | 70.0% | 8.5c | +$22.11 |
| MLB | 72 | 51W-21L | 70.8% | 8.9c | +$15.39 |
| ATP | 17 | 9W-8L | 52.9% | 1.6c | +$1.05 |
| SOCCER | 8 | 3W-5L | n/a | -1.8c | -$0.18 |
| LOL | 23 | 10W-13L | 43.5% | -1.9c | -$0.22 |
| NBA | 12 | 6W-6L | 50.0% | -15.7c | -$10.34 |
| CS2 | 29 | 11W-18L | 37.9% | -18.8c | -$12.84 |
Notable wins: Moro Canas A. (ATP) 29c entry vs 50c fair; G2 Esports (LOL) 31c entry vs 74c fair; KIWOOM DRX (LOL) 33c entry vs 56c fair.
Week 15 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-04-06
147 trades · 85W-62L · 57.8% win rate · +$69.01 net P&L across 9 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA | 6 | 2W-4L | n/a | -17.0c | +$31.04 |
| ATP | 12 | 8W-4L | 66.7% | 22.6c | +$15.13 |
| NCAAWB | 3 | 3W-0L | n/a | 45.3c | +$10.01 |
| LOL | 16 | 10W-6L | 62.5% | 16.3c | +$6.92 |
| NCAAMB | 4 | 4W-0L | n/a | 27.2c | +$4.85 |
| CS2 | 44 | 19W-25L | 43.2% | 4.2c | +$1.65 |
| SOCCER | 3 | 2W-1L | n/a | 7.0c | +$1.11 |
| MLB | 33 | 21W-12L | 63.6% | -0.5c | +$0.18 |
| NHL | 26 | 16W-10L | 61.5% | 0.9c | -$1.88 |
Notable wins: Zarazua R. (ATP) 28c entry vs 63c fair; Zarazua R. (ATP) 31c entry vs 63c fair; BNK FEARX (LOL) 32c entry vs 85c fair.
Week 14 — 7 days ending Mon 2026-03-30
11 trades · 9W-2L · 81.8% win rate · -$0.91 net P&L across 5 sports.
| Sport | Trades | Record | Win Rate | c/Trade | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TENNIS | 6 | 6W-0L | n/a | 35.0c | +$21.96 |
| LOL | 2 | 2W-0L | n/a | 33.5c | +$0.67 |
| NHL | 2 | 1W-1L | n/a | -8.5c | -$0.54 |
| NCAAWB | 1 | 0W-1L | n/a | -56.0c | -$23.00 |
Notable wins: flyers (NHL) 62c entry vs 73c fair; kt Challengers (LOL) 65c entry vs 81c fair; G2 Esports (LOL) 31c entry vs 74c fair.
How the models work
The models are trained on 60,000+ historical games and predict fair win probability from game state alone — score, time, period, Elo ratings. When our fair probability exceeds the market ask by the sport's edge floor, the bot buys and holds to settlement. The full strategy and architecture are described in how our Polymarket bots work.