Correction — October 8, 2026: Earlier versions ranked supposedly current welcome offers and gave unsupported conversion ranges, including a blanket advantage for prediction-market promotions. Those claims are withdrawn. This page uses hypothetical terms and exact arithmetic; it does not identify an available or redeemable offer.
A bonus bet and a cash credit are different inputs
A stake-not-returned bonus bet pays only the winnings when it wins. For a hypothetical $200 bonus bet at −110, decimal odds are 21/11. If the win probability is assumed to be exactly 50%, expected winnings are:
200 × 0.50 × (21/11 − 1) = $90.91
The winning payout is $181.82; that payout is not the expected value. A cash credit with no withdrawal restriction is a different benefit and should not use this conversion formula. Whether credits are cash, bonus bets or restricted funds comes from the written terms.
The wagered stake’s expected loss is not the overround
Under the same hypothetical 50/50 probability and −110 price, expected return per dollar wagered is:
0.50 × (21/11) − 1 = −4.54545%
For an assumed fixed $1,000 of cash-funded qualifying wagering at those odds and probabilities, expected wagering loss is $45.45. The two-sided −110/−110 overround is 4.76190%; it is a different quantity.
If a hypothetical offer credits $200 in unrestricted cash after that volume, and the bettor can and does complete the requirement, the simplified incremental expectation is $200 − $45.45 = $154.55. This example assumes the stated benefit is always credited after completion. It excludes failure to complete, forfeiture, withdrawal restrictions and different odds or probabilities.
Do not automatically subtract that $45.45 from the $90.91 bonus-bet expectation. That would require knowing whether those are separate cash-funded wagers, whether bonus wagers count, and when each requirement applies. A linear subtraction cannot price every promotion’s path-dependent terms.
Inputs to extract from the written offer
- Benefit type and whether the stake is returned on a win.
- Which deposits, cash wagers or bonus wagers qualify.
- The rollover denominator: deposit, bonus, or both.
- Allowed odds, markets, stake limits and expiry.
- Withdrawal and forfeiture conditions, including failure to complete.
A first-loss refund cannot be valued at its face amount without the qualifying loss probability and the nature of the refund credit. There is no general result that an exchange promotion is twice as valuable as a sportsbook promotion.
Use the calculators with their assumptions
The odds converter maps −110 to decimal and implied probability. The devig calculator shows a proportional reference, not a verified true probability. The parlay calculator makes its independent/equal-leg assumptions explicit.
These calculations explain specified terms. They do not verify a live offer, eligibility, an actual outcome probability or withdrawable proceeds. Our public research and CLV corrections keep model and measurement claims separate from payout arithmetic.