57 posts tagged “polymarket”.
Compare Telonex's advertised historical feeds with ZenHodl's dated Polymarket and Kalshi archives, including prices, sampling and timestamp limits.
PMXT offers live access and historical data. Compare its free archive and hosted API with ZenHodl’s fixed sports files using schemas, clocks and coverage.
Compare PolymarketData's API and export options with ZenHodl's dated prediction-market archives, using documented clocks, coverage and licensing.
A dated two-day Kalshi study buckets 553,843 sampled quotes by recorded best-level notional. These are liquidity buckets, not order-size or fill-cost tests.
We ran the numbers on our own $9 MLB matched-book tryout: cross-venue spread, a shared capture gap, and why a settlement-label check isn't a prediction.
Evaluate a Kaggle upload against ZenHodl's recorded prediction-market archives using field definitions, clocks, coverage, settlement and license requirements.
Profit leaderboards show ex-post winners. We hold the complete decoded tape of Polymarket's invisible parlay market — every loser included — so we...
Polymarket combos have no public listings, no order book, and no trade feed. We reconstructed the entire market from on-chain data — ~$9.5M of parlay...
A five-day engineering log: how our Polymarket trading bot recorded limit prices instead of real fills, how we reconciled every historical trade against...
An October 2026 snapshot of ZenHodl’s Polymarket, Kalshi, MLB and combo releases, with exact catalog counts, distinct clocks and measured capture limits.
Rolling archive of ZenHodl's weekly live Polymarket results — record, per-sport P&L and win rate for every week, losing weeks included.
L2 depth for the first 48-team World Cup final: 1.01M rows on Spain vs. Argentina, 20.8M across 47 matches — including which we lost. $39.
Corrected Oct 2026: a five-sport study reverses this MLB study's 32-second direction, and 1-second data shows the venues move within ~1 s.
Compare official history, free recorded books and ZenHodl archives. Check dates, depth, clocks, matching rules and license before choosing data.
Review a historical MLB Brier-score analysis with corrected interpretation of calibration, repeated snapshots and near-terminal reference prices.
A June 2026 MLB capture reported similar quoted spreads and different recorded depth. Review the sample limits, level cap and statistical interpretation.
The same game trades on Polymarket and Kalshi, so there must be free cross-venue arbitrage, right? A sampled MLB matched book shows how rare positive...
Corrected Oct 2026: a larger five-sport study reverses this June pilot's 32-second direction; 1-second data shows the venues move within ~1 s.
Find recorded Polymarket books through official data, free archives or paid files. Check the exact fields, clocks, captured window and gaps first.
Diagnose Polymarket order_version_mismatch in Python: inspect SDK release, market identifier/signing route, wallet signature type and funder; separate CTF...
How to measure closing line value for prediction markets and sportsbooks, with buy/sell signs, a worked example, formula, and ZenHodl's dated evidence.
Hedging means buying the other side of your own bet to lock a profit or cap a loss. The math, when it beats letting the position ride, and a correction...
Checked examples for independent −110 legs: combined payout, implied probability and expected stake loss. Distinguish probability gaps from ROI and...
Separate International referrer fee-sharing from Polymarket US promotional trading credits. No invented welcome amount, airdrop or deposit-bonus claim.
A worksheet for comparing cash, credits and referrer rewards. Distinguish Kalshi account offers, International fee-sharing and Polymarket US trading credits.
Polymarket US and Polymarket International are separate products. Read the CFTC designation record, the International restriction and the current US...
Recorded Polymarket prices can replay decisions but not fills. See a checked 400-row sample, schema limits, and declared cost scenarios for backtests.
Practical architecture guide for building a Polymarket trading bot in Python in 2026 — the eight components you need, how they fit together, what to build...
Compare Polymarket US/International, PredictIt, Manifold, Robinhood and ForecastEx by product structure. Corrected current official records and terms...
Learn the Polymarket API in practice: CLOB V2, Gamma, Data API, WebSocket streams, wallet signing, per-market fees, and common Python errors.
Polymarket has no built-in paper trading mode. Here are the real options for testing strategies without risk — Manifold Markets, historical price...
Identify the correct Polymarket product before following account or funding instructions. Then read its fees, bid/ask prices and settlement rules.
Distinguish Polymarket US from International, then compare matching sports contracts by rules, executable prices, size, fees and captured evidence.
Learn how Polymarket CLOB V2 fees work: per-market taker fees, zero maker fees, rebates, the fee curve, Polygon gas, and breakeven edge.
Corrected: our Polymarket trading bots are not profitable in aggregate. See the full retraction and per-market-type P&L breakdown, kept for reference.
ZenHodl's calibrated win probabilities vs Polymarket's market odds across 5,000+ resolved games — where they agree, diverge, and what it means.
A year of live trading data on Polymarket — what it reveals about sports prediction market efficiency, where systematic mispricing persists, and where the...
Calculate Kelly fractions for a binary contract with checked Python examples. Separate assumed probability, acquisition costs, fractional sizing and risk.
We just announced and on-chain anchored a 7-week head-to-head benchmark: ZenHodl's NBA model vs the live Polymarket consensus, every Conference Semis...
Worked bonus examples distinguish a cash credit from a stake-not-returned bonus bet, with explicit probability, odds and rollover assumptions.
Understand $1 contracts, executable bids and asks, gross break-even probabilities, fees and settlement rules using a hypothetical sports example.
Measure reliability in a defined prediction population, including the traded subset. Checked ECE bin endpoints, held-out calibration methods and dated...
A 2026 investigation of insider trading in prediction markets. We examine the 2024 Polymarket election dispute, academic studies of PredictIt...
Official product facts for Kalshi, Polymarket US/International, PredictIt, Manifold and ForecastEx. Compare access, contract mechanics, cost and evidence...
Prediction market APIs compared: Polymarket CLOB, Kalshi REST, ESPN scoreboard/summary endpoints, The Odds API, auth, fees, rate limits, and Python.
An April 2026 snapshot of our Polymarket bots, plus a correction: the win rate and the on-chain claim were wrong. The live ledger is on /results.
Compare sportsbook feeds, exchange APIs and prediction APIs using official pricing, coverage and interface documentation; distinguish refresh intervals...
Our bots' architecture, plus a correction: this post once published a +$2,400 P&L that was never true. Real figure: -$217.75 over 2,214 live trades.
The same game is priced differently on Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM. The devigging math, a multi-venue scanner architecture, and what our...
Our system finds dozens of trading signals per day. We trade 35% of them. The discipline to reject bad signals is worth more than the ability to find good...
Counter-Strike 2 has the widest mispricings on Polymarket. It also has the worst data infrastructure. Here's how we built a 4-tier model that handles both.
We audited every bot, found the gaps between backtest and live performance, and fixed them. CS2, NBA, MLB, LoL, and Tennis — five different problems, five...
Every one of our bots holds to settlement instead of trading actively. Why patience beat activity on Polymarket, and the strategies that failed.
Real P&L from 5 live Polymarket bots trading NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAMB, CS2, LoL, Tennis, and Soccer. Honest about what works and what doesn't.
Step-by-step Polymarket CLOB API guide in Python: authentication, reading orderbooks, fetching market data, and placing limit orders programmatically.
We backtested 237 trade signals with and without execution constraints. 99% of theoretical profit vanished. Here's what actually kills your trades — and...
A beginner's guide to automated trading on Polymarket. Learn how bots find edges using win probability models, and how to build your own.