57 posts tagged “polymarket”.
Compare ZenHodl and Telonex prediction market data: Kalshi depth and one-time archives vs Telonex's multi-venue Parquet subscription.
Compare PMXT's open-source, multi-venue trading API with ZenHodl's one-time Polymarket and Kalshi historical order-book archives.
Compare ZenHodl and PolymarketData.co: one-time Kalshi + Polymarket archives with disclosed limits vs. a recurring Polymarket API with a free tier.
See how Kalshi's quoted spread changes with the liquidity behind the quote, across 553,843 order-book snapshots — and why depth beats spread.
We ran the numbers on our own $9 MLB matched-book tryout: cross-venue spread, a shared capture gap, and why a settlement-label check isn't a prediction.
Compare ZenHodl and Kaggle Polymarket data: free community datasets vs. paid, curated Kalshi + Polymarket archives with disclosed coverage.
Profit leaderboards show ex-post winners. We hold the complete decoded tape of Polymarket's invisible parlay market — every loser included — so we...
Polymarket combos have no public listings, no order book, and no trade feed. We reconstructed the entire market from on-chain data — ~$9.5M of parlay...
A five-day engineering log: how our Polymarket trading bot recorded limit prices instead of real fills, how we reconciled every historical trade against...
A dated research snapshot on prediction-market liquidity, calibration, and execution across Polymarket and Kalshi — with current evidence caveats.
Rolling archive of ZenHodl's weekly live Polymarket results — record, per-sport P&L and win rate for every week, losing weeks included.
L2 depth for the first 48-team World Cup final: 1.01M rows on Spain vs. Argentina, 20.8M across 47 matches — including which we lost. $39.
We time-aligned sampled Kalshi and Polymarket books on the same MLB games for 16 days. Polymarket led on all 16 and divergences half-closed in ~34...
Vendor-neutral 2026 buyer's guide to historical Polymarket and Kalshi order-book data: capture it yourself or buy — what each vendor has, what it costs.
When a prediction market prices a team at 87%, do those teams really win ~87% of the time? Using live-captured, outcome-labeled MLB books from Polymarket...
A quoted bid-ask spread tells you almost nothing about how much size a prediction market can actually absorb. Using live-captured Level-2 depth from...
The same game trades on Polymarket and Kalshi, so there must be free cross-venue arbitrage, right? A sampled MLB matched book shows how rare positive...
When the same game trades on Polymarket and Kalshi, which venue leads price discovery? Using a live-captured matched book of MLB games on both venues...
Polymarket's API gives you trades but not historical depth, and the book can't be rebuilt after the fact. Your real options for order-book history.
Fix Polymarket order_version_mismatch after the CLOB V2 cutover: install py-clob-client-v2, use the right wallet signature type and funder, and stop...
Closing Line Value compares an entry with a consistently defined market close. Learn the math, pregame use cases, sample uncertainty, and in-play limitations.
Hedging means buying the other side of your own bet to lock a profit or cap a loss. The math, when it beats letting the position ride, and a correction...
The real math of parlays: combined odds, compounding vig, breakeven win rates, and when (if ever) a parlay is positive expected value.
Honest guide to Polymarket referral codes, promo codes, and sign-up bonuses in May 2026. How the referral program actually works, which codes are real...
Honest 2026 comparison of Polymarket vs Kalshi sign-up bonuses, referral programs, and new-user offers. How each platform's promotion actually works, the...
Is Polymarket legal for US users in 2026? Full breakdown of the 2022 CFTC settlement, the 2024 DOJ raid, the current geo-block, what US-based traders can...
Compare Polymarket price history, recorded book quotes and L2 depth for backtests. Check clocks, costs and capture gaps before choosing a dataset.
Practical architecture guide for building a Polymarket trading bot in Python in 2026 — the eight components you need, how they fit together, what to build...
Compare Kalshi alternatives — Polymarket, PredictIt, Manifold, Robinhood Event Contracts, and sportsbook futures — on liquidity, fees, and regulation.
Learn the Polymarket API in practice: CLOB V2, Gamma, Data API, WebSocket streams, wallet signing, per-market fees, and common Python errors.
Polymarket has no built-in paper trading mode. Here are the real options for testing strategies without risk — Manifold Markets, historical price...
Practical 2026 walkthrough for first-time Polymarket users — geographic access, wallet setup, USDC funding on Polygon, finding sports markets, placing...
Head-to-head comparison of Polymarket and Kalshi for sports prediction trading in 2026 — liquidity per sport, fees, regulation, API access, and which...
Learn how Polymarket CLOB V2 fees work: per-market taker fees, zero maker fees, rebates, the fee curve, Polygon gas, and breakeven edge.
Corrected: our Polymarket trading bots are not profitable in aggregate. See the full retraction and per-market-type P&L breakdown, kept for reference.
ZenHodl's calibrated win probabilities vs Polymarket's market odds across 5,000+ resolved games — where they agree, diverge, and what it means.
A year of live trading data on Polymarket — what it reveals about sports prediction market efficiency, where systematic mispricing persists, and where the...
The Kelly Criterion tells you the mathematically optimal bet size when you have an edge. Most traders bet 2-4x too much. Here's the formula, the Python...
We just announced and on-chain anchored a 7-week head-to-head benchmark: ZenHodl's NBA model vs the live Polymarket consensus, every Conference Semis...
Math-first 2026 analysis of sportsbook welcome bonuses: most 'free $200' offers go net-negative after rollover. The three that don't.
Prediction markets are the fastest-growing alternative to traditional sportsbooks. This 2026 guide explains what they are, how they differ from...
Most sports prediction models are accurate but not calibrated. Learn what calibration means, how to measure it, and how ZenHodl applies it across sports.
A 2026 investigation of insider trading in prediction markets. We examine the 2024 Polymarket election dispute, academic studies of PredictIt...
Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Manifold, and ForecastEx compared on liquidity, fees, geography, and API access. Honest guide, no affiliate links.
Prediction market APIs compared: Polymarket CLOB, Kalshi REST, ESPN scoreboard/summary endpoints, The Odds API, auth, fees, rate limits, and Python.
An April 2026 snapshot of our Polymarket bots, plus a correction: the win rate and the on-chain claim were wrong. The live ledger is on /results.
Compare 8 sports odds APIs — The Odds API, Polymarket, Kalshi, ESPN, and more — on pricing, latency, and coverage, tested in production.
Our bots' architecture, plus a correction: this post once published a +$2,400 P&L that was never true. Real figure: -$217.75 over 2,214 live trades.
The same game is priced differently on Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM. The devigging math, a multi-venue scanner architecture, and what our...
Our system finds dozens of trading signals per day. We trade 35% of them. The discipline to reject bad signals is worth more than the ability to find good...
Counter-Strike 2 has the widest mispricings on Polymarket. It also has the worst data infrastructure. Here's how we built a 4-tier model that handles both.
We audited every bot, found the gaps between backtest and live performance, and fixed them. CS2, NBA, MLB, LoL, and Tennis — five different problems, five...
Every one of our bots holds to settlement instead of trading actively. Why patience beat activity on Polymarket, and the strategies that failed.
Real P&L from 5 live Polymarket bots trading NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAMB, CS2, LoL, Tennis, and Soccer. Honest about what works and what doesn't.
Step-by-step Polymarket CLOB API guide in Python: authentication, reading orderbooks, fetching market data, and placing limit orders programmatically.
We backtested 237 trade signals with and without execution constraints. 99% of theoretical profit vanished. Here's what actually kills your trades — and...
A beginner's guide to automated trading on Polymarket. Learn how bots find edges using win probability models, and how to build your own.