36 posts tagged “prediction markets”.
An October 2026 snapshot of ZenHodl’s Polymarket, Kalshi, MLB and combo releases, with exact catalog counts, distinct clocks and measured capture limits.
A practical guide to ZenHodl's recorded Kalshi L2 depth and deduplicated trade prints: what the fields mean, what the sample checks, and the hard limits.
L2 depth for the first 48-team World Cup final: 1.01M rows on Spain vs. Argentina, 20.8M across 47 matches — including which we lost. $39.
Corrected Oct 2026: a five-sport study reverses this MLB study's 32-second direction, and 1-second data shows the venues move within ~1 s.
How we made our data archive buyable by an AI agent over x402 on Base, with on-chain proof. Update 2026-09-27: now x402 v2; new purchases can be paused.
Review a historical MLB Brier-score analysis with corrected interpretation of calibration, repeated snapshots and near-terminal reference prices.
A June 2026 MLB capture reported similar quoted spreads and different recorded depth. Review the sample limits, level cap and statistical interpretation.
The same game trades on Polymarket and Kalshi, so there must be free cross-venue arbitrage, right? A sampled MLB matched book shows how rare positive...
Corrected Oct 2026: a larger five-sport study reverses this June pilot's 32-second direction; 1-second data shows the venues move within ~1 s.
Hedging means buying the other side of your own bet to lock a profit or cap a loss. The math, when it beats letting the position ride, and a correction...
A worksheet for comparing cash, credits and referrer rewards. Distinguish Kalshi account offers, International fee-sharing and Polymarket US trading credits.
Polymarket US and Polymarket International are separate products. Read the CFTC designation record, the International restriction and the current US...
Compare Polymarket US/International, PredictIt, Manifold, Robinhood and ForecastEx by product structure. Corrected current official records and terms...
Kalshi combos are dedicated markets priced through RFQs. Learn joint-probability math, product-of-leg settlement and why a DNP is not automatically a refund.
Distinguish Polymarket US from International, then compare matching sports contracts by rules, executable prices, size, fees and captured evidence.
Read a multi-candidate MVP market without confusing quoted prices with true probabilities. Check settlement rules, basket costs, depth and fees.
Learn how Polymarket CLOB V2 fees work: per-market taker fees, zero maker fees, rebates, the fee curve, Polygon gas, and breakeven edge.
The most useful sports prediction tools of 2026: calibrated APIs, odds aggregators, model dashboards, and bot frameworks, ranked on transparency.
Corrected: our Polymarket trading bots are not profitable in aggregate. See the full retraction and per-market-type P&L breakdown, kept for reference.
Plain-English guide to sports prediction APIs in 2026 — what they return, how authentication and rate limits work, what calibration means, and how to...
Pragmatic seven-step workflow for integrating a sports prediction API into your trading bot, dashboard, or research pipeline — auth, polling cadence, edge...
Architecture and Python patterns for scanning live sports markets in real time and surfacing edge signals — WebSocket subscriptions, latency budgets, edge...
ZenHodl's calibrated win probabilities vs Polymarket's market odds across 5,000+ resolved games — where they agree, diverge, and what it means.
See how to turn calibrated ML probabilities into disciplined bets: position sizing, risk controls, and the honest limits of the math.
A year of live trading data on Polymarket — what it reveals about sports prediction market efficiency, where systematic mispricing persists, and where the...
Convert American, decimal and fractional odds with worked examples. Distinguish break-even implied probability, no-vig estimates and actual costs.
How we designed a single unified API schema that serves calibrated win probabilities for 12 different sports — basketball, hockey, baseball, football...
Calculate Kelly fractions for a binary contract with checked Python examples. Separate assumed probability, acquisition costs, fractional sizing and risk.
Our April 2026 survey of selected prediction sources examined public calibration evidence. Read the dated findings, criteria and limits.
Worked bonus examples distinguish a cash credit from a stake-not-returned bonus bet, with explicit probability, odds and rollover assumptions.
Understand $1 contracts, executable bids and asks, gross break-even probabilities, fees and settlement rules using a hypothetical sports example.
Measure reliability in a defined prediction population, including the traded subset. Checked ECE bin endpoints, held-out calibration methods and dated...
A 2026 investigation of insider trading in prediction markets. We examine the 2024 Polymarket election dispute, academic studies of PredictIt...
Calculate conditional expected ROI at actual offered odds. Understand what −110 break-even means and why calibration, sample size and sizing do not prove...
Official product facts for Kalshi, Polymarket US/International, PredictIt, Manifold and ForecastEx. Compare access, contract mechanics, cost and evidence...
Every one of our bots holds to settlement instead of trading actively. Why patience beat activity on Polymarket, and the strategies that failed.