36 posts tagged “prediction markets”.
A dated research snapshot on prediction-market liquidity, calibration, and execution across Polymarket and Kalshi — with current evidence caveats.
Kalshi L2 depth (up to 20 levels/side) plus a deduplicated trade tape with taker side, from a venue that doesn't retain its book — sold as dated vintages...
L2 depth for the first 48-team World Cup final: 1.01M rows on Spain vs. Argentina, 20.8M across 47 matches — including which we lost. $39.
We time-aligned sampled Kalshi and Polymarket books on the same MLB games for 16 days. Polymarket led on all 16 and divergences half-closed in ~34...
How we made our data archive buyable by an AI agent over x402 on Base, with on-chain proof. Update 2026-09-27: now x402 v2; new purchases can be paused.
When a prediction market prices a team at 87%, do those teams really win ~87% of the time? Using live-captured, outcome-labeled MLB books from Polymarket...
A quoted bid-ask spread tells you almost nothing about how much size a prediction market can actually absorb. Using live-captured Level-2 depth from...
The same game trades on Polymarket and Kalshi, so there must be free cross-venue arbitrage, right? A sampled MLB matched book shows how rare positive...
When the same game trades on Polymarket and Kalshi, which venue leads price discovery? Using a live-captured matched book of MLB games on both venues...
Hedging means buying the other side of your own bet to lock a profit or cap a loss. The math, when it beats letting the position ride, and a correction...
Honest 2026 comparison of Polymarket vs Kalshi sign-up bonuses, referral programs, and new-user offers. How each platform's promotion actually works, the...
Is Polymarket legal for US users in 2026? Full breakdown of the 2022 CFTC settlement, the 2024 DOJ raid, the current geo-block, what US-based traders can...
Compare Kalshi alternatives — Polymarket, PredictIt, Manifold, Robinhood Event Contracts, and sportsbook futures — on liquidity, fees, and regulation.
Learn how Kalshi's multivariate combo markets work like parlays, how to find them via the API, and how they differ from sportsbook parlays.
Head-to-head comparison of Polymarket and Kalshi for sports prediction trading in 2026 — liquidity per sport, fees, regulation, API access, and which...
Structural guide to the Kalshi NFL MVP market — how multi-outcome contracts work, how to read per-player implied probabilities, seasonal liquidity...
Learn how Polymarket CLOB V2 fees work: per-market taker fees, zero maker fees, rebates, the fee curve, Polygon gas, and breakeven edge.
The most useful sports prediction tools of 2026: calibrated APIs, odds aggregators, model dashboards, and bot frameworks, ranked on transparency.
Corrected: our Polymarket trading bots are not profitable in aggregate. See the full retraction and per-market-type P&L breakdown, kept for reference.
Plain-English guide to sports prediction APIs in 2026 — what they return, how authentication and rate limits work, what calibration means, and how to...
Pragmatic seven-step workflow for integrating a sports prediction API into your trading bot, dashboard, or research pipeline — auth, polling cadence, edge...
Architecture and Python patterns for scanning live sports markets in real time and surfacing edge signals — WebSocket subscriptions, latency budgets, edge...
ZenHodl's calibrated win probabilities vs Polymarket's market odds across 5,000+ resolved games — where they agree, diverge, and what it means.
See how to turn calibrated ML probabilities into disciplined bets: position sizing, risk controls, and the honest limits of the math.
A year of live trading data on Polymarket — what it reveals about sports prediction market efficiency, where systematic mispricing persists, and where the...
The formulas plus worked examples for converting every betting odds format. American to decimal, fractional to probability, and how to remove the vig to...
How we designed a single unified API schema that serves calibrated win probabilities for 12 different sports — basketball, hockey, baseball, football...
The Kelly Criterion tells you the mathematically optimal bet size when you have an edge. Most traders bet 2-4x too much. Here's the formula, the Python...
We surveyed 21 sports prediction providers — KenPom, BetQL, Sportradar, FiveThirtyEight, MoneyPuck, OddsJam, and 15 others — for the one number a...
Math-first 2026 analysis of sportsbook welcome bonuses: most 'free $200' offers go net-negative after rollover. The three that don't.
Prediction markets are the fastest-growing alternative to traditional sportsbooks. This 2026 guide explains what they are, how they differ from...
Most sports prediction models are accurate but not calibrated. Learn what calibration means, how to measure it, and how ZenHodl applies it across sports.
A 2026 investigation of insider trading in prediction markets. We examine the 2024 Polymarket election dispute, academic studies of PredictIt...
An honest, math-first answer to whether you can profit from sports betting long-term. The arithmetic of edge, vig, variance, and Kelly sizing — plus the 5...
Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Manifold, and ForecastEx compared on liquidity, fees, geography, and API access. Honest guide, no affiliate links.
Every one of our bots holds to settlement instead of trading actively. Why patience beat activity on Polymarket, and the strategies that failed.