A “$20 bonus” label is not enough to compare two prediction-market offers. First identify the product, the recipient and what the reward can actually do. This page does not publish a supposedly current winner based on unverified offer amounts.
Three different programs
| Program | Verified distinction | Official reference |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi referrals | Reward and qualifying activity are account-specific | Referral FAQ |
| Polymarket International referrals | Eligible referrers earn a share of eligible referred-user net fees | Referral program |
| Polymarket US promotional credits | The credit itself is not withdrawable cash | Credit explanation |
These official pages were checked October 8, 2026. They do not establish a universal welcome amount for every new user. Nor does an International referral link automatically apply to a US account.
Save these fields before comparing
Use the terms displayed to the account, rather than a search result’s headline. Record the eligible user/location, code-entry deadline, qualification deadline, required activity, reward denomination, expiry, claim action and withdrawal conditions. Specify who earns it: the joining user, the referrer or both.
For a credit, separate its face amount from eligible cash proceeds. For fee-sharing, estimate only fees from qualifying activity under the program’s actual window; “trading volume” is not itself reward revenue. For cash, check whether any funding or withdrawal hold applies.
A useful arithmetic comparison
Suppose a purely hypothetical offer gives $20 of withdrawable cash after required activity that has an estimated $8 expected cost. The estimated promotional contribution is $12 under that cost assumption. It is not a guaranteed realized gain, and changing the required trades changes the estimate.
A $20 nonwithdrawable trading credit cannot be assigned the same $20 cash value without modeling its usage and proceeds. A referrer’s percentage of future eligible fees is different again. No fixed “best bonus” ranking follows from the headline amounts.
The older page’s asserted dollar offers, automatic referral/deposit qualification and recommended low-risk volume trades are removed. For the current details of each program, use Kalshi’s referral guide and Polymarket’s program distinctions. Access is a separate check: see Polymarket US versus International.