Public ledger — auto-refreshes every 60s

Public Transparency Ledger

This filtered public ledger contains bot-attributed trades and is updated as settlement evidence arrives. 55% of resolved trades carry an execution identifier; 0.3% carry a direct on-chain transaction hash. 2026-03-09 to 2026-10-11.

Filtered Public Ledger | Start: March 9, 2026 | Updated 3m ago | Reconciliation: healthy | 1368 excluded rows
3160 resolved trades — 55% carry an execution identifier (0.3% a direct on-chain tx hash) · We publish our losses · Bot-attributed only · Backfill + shadow excluded · Linked wallet is a separate evidence source · Includes esports trades · the CLV scorecard counts a different (CLV-covered) subset, so totals differ by design

This is the receipt, not a results brag. The public ledger is updated as trades resolve; 55% of resolved trades carry an execution identifier and 0.3% carry a direct on-chain transaction hash. Related wallet activity is separately auditable on PolygonScan.

3160 resolved ledger rows, wins and losses. The linked wallet exposes its own activity history separately; it is not a one-to-one mirror of these rows. Inspect the selected NBA comparisons in our dated benchmark artifacts. Those evaluations do not establish current live-trading profitability.

See the calibration evidence →

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0.3% of resolved ledger rows currently carry a direct on-chain transaction hash; the linked wallet is a separate evidence source

This is a filtered view of bot-attributed trades only, starting March 9, 2026. Manual and backfilled entries are excluded.

The linked wallet is a separate evidence source containing manual trades, test transactions, and other operations as well as bot activity. It is not a one-to-one mirror of this filtered ledger. Inspect its complete activity history directly on PolygonScan.

View on Polymarket View on PolygonScan

Wallet: 0xc2a2D9267F13A7eFb2B1B527eCB4D8240a7823a0 (Gnosis Safe v1.3.0)

3160
Resolved ledger rows
55%
Carry an execution identifier (0.3% a direct on-chain tx hash)
1368
Rows excluded (disclosed)
1718
Losses we publish
Judge the model on evidence, not this scoreboard: CLV audit & retraction → | Fair value vs Pinnacle, published evidence →
Raw trading numbers (full record — not a profit claim)
1442
Wins
1718
Losses
45.6%
Win Rate
-1.2c
c/share
$-83.82
Net P&L
0 / 0
Open / Awaiting

The Ledger — Real-Money Trades, Publicly Logged

We show the full live record, losses included — this is the honesty record, not the sales pitch.

Cumulative P&L ($)

The chart above is real-money trade data

Worst day: $-31.64. We show it anyway.

A system that only shows wins is selling you something. We publish the losses too, alongside calibration, execution diagnostics, and the public CLV correction history—with the limits of each measure stated.

Read the CLV retraction & audit →

By Sport

Sport Trades W L Win Rate c/share Net P&L
TENNIS 6 6 0 100.0% +35.0c $21.96
NHL 140 84 56 60.0% +2.3c $18.33
NBA 43 17 26 39.5% -18.9c $8.72
WTA 1133 480 653 42.4% +0.6c $8.71
NCAAMB 3 3 0 100.0% +30.0c $4.09
SOCCER 109 46 63 42.2% -0.2c $1.77
NFL 15 6 9 40.0% -1.9c $-0.63
CFB 22 9 13 40.9% -4.1c $-0.95
WNBA 150 56 94 37.3% -0.9c $-3.53
LOL 186 86 100 46.2% +1.5c $-4.65
NCAAWB 4 3 1 75.0% +20.0c $-12.99
MLB 617 329 288 53.3% -1.1c $-16.77
CS2 370 181 189 48.9% -3.9c $-36.50
ATP 362 136 226 37.6% -6.4c $-71.38

By Strategy

Bot Trades Win Rate c/share Net P&L
soccer_wp 109 42.2% -0.2c $1.77
moneyline_wp 994 51.0% -1.3c $-3.73
lol 186 46.2% +1.5c $-4.65
cs2 370 48.9% -3.9c $-36.50
tennis_wp 1501 41.4% -0.9c $-40.71

Weekly

Week Trades W L Win Rate Net P&L
2026-W41 176 72 104 40.9% $4.98
2026-W40 136 45 91 33.1% $-4.15
2026-W39 145 58 87 40.0% $17.37
2026-W38 113 40 73 35.4% $4.76
2026-W37 94 38 56 40.4% $12.46
2026-W36 42 16 26 38.1% $2.12
2026-W35 138 56 82 40.6% $18.83
2026-W34 35 11 24 31.4% $-9.27
2026-W33 82 34 48 41.5% $5.00
2026-W32 36 14 22 38.9% $0.01
2026-W31 4 1 3 25.0% $-0.49
2026-W30 4 2 2 50.0% $2.37
2026-W29 18 4 14 22.2% $-5.93
2026-W28 19 7 12 36.8% $2.31
2026-W27 47 26 21 55.3% $-2.10
2026-W26 79 39 40 49.4% $-8.30
2026-W25 89 43 46 48.3% $-9.24
2026-W24 179 92 87 51.4% $-15.74
2026-W23 51 26 25 51.0% $-0.61
2026-W22 175 80 95 45.7% $-16.22
2026-W21 230 97 133 42.2% $-26.27
2026-W20 224 117 107 52.2% $29.29
2026-W19 331 165 166 49.8% $-48.59
2026-W18 62 14 48 22.6% $-68.40
2026-W17 160 63 97 39.4% $-63.08
2026-W16 138 67 71 48.6% $-1.37
2026-W15 185 110 75 59.5% $15.24
2026-W14 153 94 59 61.4% $78.28
2026-W13 8 6 2 75.0% $-2.78
2026-W11 7 5 2 71.4% $5.70

Recent Trades

Date Bot Sport Team Entry Fair Edge Size P&L W/L Tx
2026-10-11 soccer_wp SOCCER home 30c 48c +14c 3.5 $-1.05 L
Fair WP: 48c
Entry: 30c
Edge: +14c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: Hull City AFC vs. Everton FC
Side: BUY
Size: 3.5
P&L: $-1.05
2026-10-11 soccer_wp SOCCER away 32c 44c +11c 3.2 $-1.02 L
Fair WP: 44c
Entry: 32c
Edge: +11c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: OGC Nice vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace
Side: BUY
Size: 3.2
P&L: $-1.02
2026-10-11 soccer_wp SOCCER away 40c 49c +7c 3.2 $-1.29 L
Fair WP: 49c
Entry: 40c
Edge: +7c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: Crystal Palace FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC
Side: BUY
Size: 3.2
P&L: $-1.29
2026-10-11 tennis_wp WTA Mirra Andreeva 63c 71c +8c 2.1 $-1.32 L
Fair WP: 71c
Entry: 63c
Edge: +8c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Mirra Andreeva
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $-1.32
2026-10-11 soccer_wp SOCCER draw 34c 40c +6c 3.1 $2.04 W
Fair WP: 40c
Entry: 34c
Edge: +6c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: Como 1907 vs. AS Roma
Side: BUY
Size: 3.1
P&L: $2.04
2026-10-11 tennis_wp WTA Ayla Aksu 31c 37c +6c 4.3 $2.94 W
Fair WP: 37c
Entry: 31c
Edge: +6c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Samsun: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini
Side: BUY
Size: 4.3
P&L: $2.94
2026-10-11 tennis_wp WTA Mananchaya Sawangkae 41c 53c +12c 3.1 $1.86 W
Fair WP: 53c
Entry: 41c
Edge: +12c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Anna Bondar vs Mananchaya
Side: BUY
Size: 3.1
P&L: $1.86
2026-10-11 tennis_wp WTA Catherine McNally 52c 58c +6c 2.1 $1.02 W
Fair WP: 58c
Entry: 52c
Edge: +6c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Caty
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $1.02
2026-10-11 tennis_wp WTA Shi Han 26c 30c +4c 4.5 $3.30 W
Fair WP: 30c
Entry: 26c
Edge: +4c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Han Shi vs Kamilla Rakhimo
Side: BUY
Size: 4.5
P&L: $3.30
2026-10-11 tennis_wp WTA Camila Osorio 55c 58c +3c 2.1 $-1.16 L
Fair WP: 58c
Entry: 55c
Edge: +3c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Katie Vol
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $-1.16
2026-10-11 tennis_wp WTA Aoi Ito 30c 44c +14c 4.3 $2.99 W
Fair WP: 44c
Entry: 30c
Edge: +14c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Aoi Ito
Side: BUY
Size: 4.3
P&L: $2.99
2026-10-11 tennis_wp WTA Daria Kasatkina 57c 61c +3c 2.1 $0.92 W
Fair WP: 61c
Entry: 57c
Edge: +3c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Dar
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.92
2026-10-11 tennis_wp WTA Ashlyn Krueger 32c 45c +13c 3.3 $-1.05 L
Fair WP: 45c
Entry: 32c
Edge: +13c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Ashlyn
Side: BUY
Size: 3.3
P&L: $-1.05
2026-10-11 tennis_wp WTA Sinja Kraus 54c 60c +6c 2.1 $-1.14 L
Fair WP: 60c
Entry: 54c
Edge: +6c
Bot: tennis_wp
Event: Wuhan Tennis Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Sinja Kra
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $-1.14
2026-10-11 soccer_wp SOCCER home 42c 51c +9c 3.1 $-1.29 L
Fair WP: 51c
Entry: 42c
Edge: +9c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: Colorado Rapids SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes
Side: BUY
Size: 3.1
P&L: $-1.29
2026-10-11 moneyline_wp NHL ducks 58c 67c +9c 2.0 $0.85 W
Fair WP: 67c
Entry: 58c
Edge: +9c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Ducks vs. Flames
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $0.85
2026-10-11 moneyline_wp CFB jamesmadison 63c 72c +8c 2.1 $0.76 W
Fair WP: 72c
Entry: 63c
Edge: +8c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: James Madison vs. Georgia Southern
Side: BUY
Size: 2.1
P&L: $0.76
2026-10-11 moneyline_wp CFB virginia 50c 57c +7c 2.0 $1.02 W
Fair WP: 57c
Entry: 50c
Edge: +7c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Syracuse vs. Virginia
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $1.02
2026-10-11 moneyline_wp CFB usc 47c 53c +5c 3.1 $1.62 W
Fair WP: 53c
Entry: 47c
Edge: +5c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: USC vs. Penn State
Side: BUY
Size: 3.1
P&L: $1.62
2026-10-11 moneyline_wp CFB alabama 45c 50c +5c 3.0 $-1.35 L
Fair WP: 50c
Entry: 45c
Edge: +5c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Georgia vs. Alabama
Side: BUY
Size: 3.0
P&L: $-1.35
2026-10-11 soccer_wp SOCCER away 25c 50c +13c 4.6 $3.42 W
Fair WP: 50c
Entry: 25c
Edge: +13c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: Atlanta United FC vs. FC Cincinnati
Side: BUY
Size: 4.6
P&L: $3.42
2026-10-11 soccer_wp SOCCER home 27c 37c +8c 4.4 $-1.20 L
Fair WP: 37c
Entry: 27c
Edge: +8c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: Minnesota United FC vs. Houston Dynamo
Side: BUY
Size: 4.4
P&L: $-1.20
2026-10-10 soccer_wp SOCCER home 46c 54c +6c 3.2 $1.73 W
Fair WP: 54c
Entry: 46c
Edge: +6c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: Orlando City SC vs. Columbus Crew
Side: BUY
Size: 3.2
P&L: $1.73
2026-10-10 moneyline_wp NHL penguins 57c 65c +8c 2.0 $0.88 W
Fair WP: 65c
Entry: 57c
Edge: +8c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Stars vs. Penguins
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $0.88
2026-10-10 moneyline_wp NHL senators 30c 35c +5c 4.0 $2.80 W
Fair WP: 35c
Entry: 30c
Edge: +5c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Predators vs. Senators
Side: BUY
Size: 4.0
P&L: $2.80
2026-10-10 moneyline_wp NHL mapleleafs 40c 46c +6c 3.1 $1.85 W
Fair WP: 46c
Entry: 40c
Edge: +6c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche
Side: BUY
Size: 3.1
P&L: $1.85
2026-10-10 moneyline_wp NHL canadiens 66c 71c +5c 2.0 $0.68 W
Fair WP: 71c
Entry: 66c
Edge: +5c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Red Wings vs. Canadiens
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $0.68
2026-10-10 moneyline_wp NHL wild 74c 79c +5c 2.0 $0.52 W
Fair WP: 79c
Entry: 74c
Edge: +5c
Bot: moneyline_wp
Event: Wild vs. Panthers
Side: BUY
Size: 2.0
P&L: $0.52
2026-10-10 soccer_wp SOCCER draw 27c 34c +7c 4.2 $-1.12 L
Fair WP: 34c
Entry: 27c
Edge: +7c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: Real Madrid CF vs. Villarreal CF
Side: BUY
Size: 4.2
P&L: $-1.12
2026-10-10 soccer_wp SOCCER home 45c 58c +9c 2.2 $-1.00 L
Fair WP: 58c
Entry: 45c
Edge: +9c
Bot: soccer_wp
Event: AS Monaco FC vs. Toulouse FC
Side: BUY
Size: 2.2
P&L: $-1.00

Now you've seen the receipts. Use the fair value to compare venue prices.

The Edge Finder compares model win-probability references with available Polymarket, Kalshi and sportsbook prices. Check quote availability, costs and the linked evaluation evidence before interpreting a gap.

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Backtest Validation (2025-26 Season)

Simulated

What the v3 model would have traded this season using real ESPN game data. ESPN WP as market proxy + 0.5c spread, 2c fee + 1c slippage, hold to settlement. Subsampled every 5th row (25s polling), deduped, max 3/game. Full methodology in our research paper.

2625
Trades
1832
Wins
69.8%
Win Rate
+2.4c
Net c/share
$62.69
Net P&L
Sport Trades W Win Rate c/share Net P&L
NCAAMB 1237 948 76.6% +9.3c $78.55
NCAAWB 864 572 66.2% +2.2c $-6.68
NBA 238 146 61.3% +3.9c $2.17
NFL 286 166 58.0% -1.0c $-11.35
3160 trades, losses included · Updated through settlement · Separate wallet history on PolygonScan · Fair value at parity with Pinnacle + Polymarket
Edge Finder

Calibrated fair value + best price

Across Polymarket, Kalshi & the books

Open the Edge Finder →
Published audit trail

Calibration & CLV correction

Public ledger; 55% of resolved trades carry execution identifiers

Read the retraction & audit

Want the model internals? Read the methodology or the per-sport benchmarks.

Data source: trades.jsonl written by live bots. Excludes shadow mode and backfill entries.

P&L is currently gross of Polymarket taker fees and any rebates; it is not a cash-accounting net figure. Updates automatically when trades resolve.

2026-03-09 to 2026-10-11 · 3160 resolved · 0 open positions · 0 awaiting settlement