MLB Baseball Model: Week 23 Analysis
Our MLB Baseball model identified 55 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 26W-29L for -$7.80 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 47.3%
- Average edge: -4.5c per trade
- Net P&L: -$7.80
Example Trades
- arizonadiamondbacks: 28c entry, Lost (-$1.12)
- bostonredsox: 30c entry, Won (+$2.80)
- atlantabraves: 25c entry, Lost (-$1.00)
How the MLB Baseball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.