MLB Baseball Model: Week 21 Analysis
Our MLB Baseball model identified 33 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 16W-17L for +$4.67 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 48.5%
- Average edge: 2.1c per trade
- Net P&L: +$4.67
Example Trades
- athletics: 28c entry, Lost (-$1.12)
- milwaukeebrewers: 26c entry, Lost (-$1.04)
- stlouiscardinals: 26c entry, Lost (-$1.04)
How the MLB Baseball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.