MLB Baseball Model: Week 16 Analysis
Our MLB Baseball model identified 72 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 51W-21L for +$15.39 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 70.8%
- Average edge: 8.9c per trade
- Net P&L: +$15.39
Example Trades
- chicagowhitesox: 53c entry, Won (+$0.98)
- sandiegopadres: 81c entry, Won (+$0.38)
- texasrangers: 60c entry, Won (+$0.80)
How the MLB Baseball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.