MLB Baseball Model: Week 22 Analysis
Our MLB Baseball model identified 47 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 23W-24L for -$2.11 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 48.9%
- Average edge: -3.5c per trade
- Net P&L: -$2.11
Example Trades
- texasrangers: 44c entry, Lost (-$1.32)
- atlantabraves: 42c entry, Lost (-$1.26)
- kansascityroyals: 82c entry, Won (+$0.36)
How the MLB Baseball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.