MLB Baseball Model: Week 15 Analysis
Our MLB Baseball model identified 33 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 21W-12L for +$0.18 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 63.6%
- Average edge: -0.5c per trade
- Net P&L: +$0.18
Example Trades
- detroittigers: 61c entry, Lost (-$1.28)
- detroittigers: 76c entry, Lost (-$1.58)
- newyorkyankees: 76c entry, Lost (-$1.58)
How the MLB Baseball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.