ATP Model: Week 24 Analysis
Our ATP model identified 5 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 3W-2L for -$1.01 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 60.0%
- Average edge: 1.0c per trade
- Net P&L: -$1.01
Example Trades
- Alexander Zverev: 72c entry, Won (+$0.58)
- Frances Tiafoe: 46c entry, Lost (-$1.47)
- Alejandro Tabilo: 25c entry, Lost (-$1.12)
How the ATP Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.