ATP Model: Week 21 Analysis
Our ATP model identified 16 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 6W-10L for -$0.12 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 37.5%
- Average edge: -2.8c per trade
- Net P&L: -$0.12
Example Trades
- Daniil Medvedev: 30c entry, Lost (-$1.32)
- Luciano Darderi: 25c entry, Lost (-$1.12)
- Daniil Medvedev: 26c entry, Won (+$3.30)
How the ATP Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.