ATP Model: Week 16 Analysis
Our ATP model identified 17 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 9W-8L for +$1.05 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 52.9%
- Average edge: 1.6c per trade
- Net P&L: +$1.05
Example Trades
- Siegemund L.: 49c entry, Lost (-$1.47)
- Sinner J.: 37c entry, Won (+$2.04)
- Martinez P.: 51c entry, Lost (-$1.02)
How the ATP Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.