ATP Model: Week 23 Analysis
Our ATP model identified 62 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 25W-37L for -$16.37 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 40.3%
- Average edge: -11.8c per trade
- Net P&L: -$16.37
Example Trades
- Joao Fonseca: 35c entry, Won (+$2.12)
- Andrey Rublev: 43c entry, Lost (-$1.35)
- Pablo Carreno Busta: 24c entry, Lost (-$1.12)
How the ATP Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.