ATP Model: Week 22 Analysis
Our ATP model identified 57 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 11W-46L for -$31.52 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 19.3%
- Average edge: -12.9c per trade
- Net P&L: -$31.52
Example Trades
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: 21c entry, Lost (-$1.20)
- Hugo Dellien: 44c entry, Lost (-$1.44)
- Valentin Royer: 57c entry, Won (+$0.91)
How the ATP Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.