ATP Model: Week 15 Analysis
Our ATP model identified 12 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 8W-4L for +$15.13 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 66.7%
- Average edge: 22.6c per trade
- Net P&L: +$15.13
Example Trades
- Norrie C.: 50c entry, Won (+$1.06)
- Brancaccio R.: 51c entry, Won (+$0.98)
- Norrie C.: 58c entry, Won (+$0.84)
How the ATP Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.