These are selected paired pregame comparisons with Pinnacle or Polymarket. Inspect each window, prediction timing, exclusions and sample size; they do not establish universal market parity or current live-trading profitability. Published losses remain visible.

Dated public benchmarks

Our model vs the market

Each listing has its own manifest and evidence status. Where a Polygon receipt is published, compare its digest and broadcast time with the served manifest and eligible window. Prediction and result artifacts show the recorded sample, including losses; they do not prove a census of all eligible games.

Open the Edge Finder → Read the CLV-gap retraction →
MLB

ZenHodl vs Polymarket Consensus — MLB June 2026 Regular-Season Sample

On-chain ✓
Complete
First 100 MLB regular-season games tipping on or after 2026-06-01 for which both ZenHodl and Polymarket markets are available at T-60
254
Resolved
0.039
ZH ECE
0.051
PM ECE
NBA

ZenHodl vs Pinnacle Pregame Line — NBA Playoffs 2026 Calibration Benchmark

On-chain ✓
Closed
2026 Conference Semifinals through Finals (inclusive)
29
Resolved
0.123
ZH ECE
0.186
Pinnacle ECE
NBA

ZenHodl vs Polymarket Consensus — NBA Playoffs 2026 Calibration Benchmark

On-chain ✓
Closed
2026 Conference Semifinals through Finals (inclusive)
36
Resolved
0.193
ZH ECE
0.183
PM ECE
NHL

ZenHodl vs Pinnacle Pregame Line — NHL Playoffs 2026 Calibration Benchmark

On-chain ✓
Closed
2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Conference Semifinals through Stanley Cup Finals (inclusive)
29
Resolved
0.122
ZH ECE
0.121
Pinnacle ECE
NHL

ZenHodl vs Polymarket Consensus — NHL Playoffs 2026 Calibration Benchmark

On-chain ✓
Closed
2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Conference Semifinals through Stanley Cup Finals (inclusive)
24
Resolved
0.203
ZH ECE
0.150
PM ECE

How these work

  1. Each benchmark has a manifest JSON declaring the scope, metrics, and rules.
  2. Where an on-chain receipt exists, inspect its broadcast time and matching manifest SHA-256.
  3. Use each manifest's snapshot timing and matching rules; paired sources can be Polymarket or Pinnacle, and missing pairs are excluded.
  4. After each game settles, we resolve the outcome from ESPN and append a scored row.
  5. A matching hash verifies the manifest file. It does not make prediction/result logs immutable; inspect those artifacts separately.