Live pre-committed benchmarks
Our model vs the market, on-chain
Each benchmark below is a separate pre-committed experiment. The rules for each are frozen by a SHA-256 hash broadcast to Polygon before the first eligible game. We publish every result, including the losses.
MLB
ZenHodl vs Polymarket Consensus — MLB June 2026 Regular-Season Sample
Starts Jun 1, 2026
No samples expected before Jun 1, 2026.
First 100 MLB regular-season games tipping on or after 2026-06-01 for which both ZenHodl and Polymarket markets are available at T-60
0
Resolved
—
ZH ECE
—
PM ECE
NBA
ZenHodl vs Pinnacle Closing Line — NBA Playoffs 2026 Calibration Benchmark
Collecting
2026 Conference Semifinals through Finals (inclusive)
20
Resolved
0.082
ZH ECE
0.156
PM ECE
NBA
ZenHodl vs Polymarket Consensus — NBA Playoffs 2026 Calibration Benchmark
Collecting
2026 Conference Semifinals through Finals (inclusive)
27
Resolved
0.186
ZH ECE
0.161
PM ECE
NHL
ZenHodl vs Pinnacle Closing Line — NHL Playoffs 2026 Calibration Benchmark
Collecting
2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Conference Semifinals through Stanley Cup Finals (inclusive)
19
Resolved
0.178
ZH ECE
0.193
PM ECE
NHL
ZenHodl vs Polymarket Consensus — NHL Playoffs 2026 Calibration Benchmark
Collecting
2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Conference Semifinals through Stanley Cup Finals (inclusive)
20
Resolved
0.276
ZH ECE
0.207
PM ECE
How these work
- Each benchmark has a manifest JSON declaring the scope, metrics, and rules.
- Before the first eligible game, the manifest's SHA-256 hash is broadcast to Polygon.
- At T-60 minutes before each game tips off, both ZenHodl's and Polymarket's probabilities are logged.
- After each game settles, we resolve the outcome from ESPN and append a scored row.
- If we ever edit the manifest during the window, the live hash stops matching the on-chain receipt. You can verify.