Prediction-Market Microstructure Dataset — Derived Event Analytics

Derived Kalshi microstructure tables for quote freezes, recovery curves, spread compression, leader-lag clusters, and price-discovery research.

Full schema & known gaps →· Sold as-is — but if a file is broken or won't open, email [email protected] and we'll send a fixed file or refund you. No hassle.

Inspect the free sample rows and schemas before buying.

Frozen artifact delivery: the product page and shipped documentation state the exact coverage, row counts and known limitations. A purchase delivers the advertised frozen artifact; no future refresh is promised unless the checkout terms explicitly say so.

Derived quote-event analysis Partial derived observations

Competition-season mapping and the complete fixture denominator are unverified. This is not a complete-season archive.

This pack contains derived quote-event tables and research summaries, rather than a raw order-book history. Its source observation window is not recorded in the reviewed metadata.

Source observation window:
start unknown → end unknown

UTC timestamps retain their recorded precision; dates alone identify UTC days. The data card's release timestamp is not an observation boundary.

Scheduled sports event times:
start unknown → end unknown

Scheduled event times are not inferred from capture windows or combo trade dates.

Coverage qualifications
  • No season scope declared in the archive manifest
  • Complete-season fixture denominator has not been verified

Why the capture contract matters

The schema and coverage notes identify this artifact's record types: sampled quotes or depth, trade prints, derived outcomes or analysis, depending on the product. Observation time, exchange event time and artifact vintage are different clocks. Read the documented fields, gaps and joins before deciding whether the file fits your research; a quote observation does not establish a fill.

What's in the dataset

~587K derived event rows across 6 event libraries (largest 178K quote-freezes) + summary tables + 20+ charts, computed from 20M+ raw Kalshi ticks

Research uses for this dataset

Analyze quote freezes

Work from derived freeze events rather than rebuilding the detector before testing a research question.

Measure recovery curves

Compare how quickly prices and spreads normalized after the captured event classes.

Study price discovery

Use leader-lag and spread-compression tables with the published methodology.

Reproduce reported results

Load the Parquet tables and rerun the documented aggregations with your own filters.

See the real rows before you buy

We publish real sample rows — not a marketing mockup. Load them in DuckDB, inspect the schema and coverage contract, then decide.

← All data archives · Cross-venue lead-lag study (updated Oct 2026) · Backtesting Polymarket strategies — tools & datasets · Data license