Fair Value Calculator

Search any live game to see our ML model's fair win probability vs the Polymarket ask price. Free, no signup required.

Works during live games. Try: Lakers, Duke, Arsenal, Chiefs, Purdue

No live games match your search

Games appear here when they're in progress. NBA/NHL: evenings ET. NCAAMB: afternoons + evenings. Soccer: mornings ET.

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Updated

1. Live scores

We poll ESPN every 5 seconds for real-time game state: score, time, period.

2. ML model

Our model (trained on 60K+ games) predicts the fair win probability from game state + Elo ratings.

3. Compare

When fair probability exceeds the market ask by 8c+, that's a tradeable edge.

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