WTA Model: Week 26 Analysis
Our WTA model identified 11 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 6W-5L for -$0.80 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 54.5%
- Average edge: 6.4c per trade
- Net P&L: -$0.80
Example Trades
- Himeno Sakatsume: 38c entry, Lost (-$1.23)
- Mia Pohankova: 29c entry, Lost (-$1.24)
- Diana Shnaider: 52c entry, Won (+$1.02)
How the WTA Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so its output is an independent fair-value reference to compare against the market, not a guaranteed profit signal.