MLB Baseball Model: Week 26 Analysis
Our MLB Baseball model identified 52 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 28W-24L for -$0.95 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 53.8%
- Average edge: -0.4c per trade
- Net P&L: -$0.95
Example Trades
- losangelesangels: 30c entry, Won (+$2.80)
- bostonredsox: 32c entry, Lost (-$1.28)
- baltimoreorioles: 75c entry, Won (+$0.50)
How the MLB Baseball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so its output is an independent fair-value reference to compare against the market, not a guaranteed profit signal.