14 posts tagged “strategy”.
How to measure closing line value for prediction markets and sportsbooks, with buy/sell signs, a worked example, formula, and ZenHodl's dated evidence.
Hedging means buying the other side of your own bet to lock a profit or cap a loss. The math, when it beats letting the position ride, and a correction...
Checked examples for independent −110 legs: combined payout, implied probability and expected stake loss. Distinguish probability gaps from ROI and...
Recorded Polymarket prices can replay decisions but not fills. See a checked 400-row sample, schema limits, and declared cost scenarios for backtests.
Polymarket has no built-in paper trading mode. Here are the real options for testing strategies without risk — Manifold Markets, historical price...
Read a multi-candidate MVP market without confusing quoted prices with true probabilities. Check settlement rules, basket costs, depth and fees.
Architecture and Python patterns for scanning live sports markets in real time and surfacing edge signals — WebSocket subscriptions, latency budgets, edge...
See how to turn calibrated ML probabilities into disciplined bets: position sizing, risk controls, and the honest limits of the math.
Calculate Kelly fractions for a binary contract with checked Python examples. Separate assumed probability, acquisition costs, fractional sizing and risk.
Our bots' architecture, plus a correction: this post once published a +$2,400 P&L that was never true. Real figure: -$217.75 over 2,214 live trades.
Our system finds dozens of trading signals per day. We trade 35% of them. The discipline to reject bad signals is worth more than the ability to find good...
Every one of our bots holds to settlement instead of trading actively. Why patience beat activity on Polymarket, and the strategies that failed.
A 6-feature model outperforms a 50-feature model at making money — even with a worse accuracy score. Here's why, and what it means for how you should...
A practical guide to backtesting sports betting and prediction market strategies in Python. Covers the common pitfalls — survivorship bias, look-ahead...