11 posts tagged “betting math”.
How to measure closing line value for prediction markets and sportsbooks, with buy/sell signs, a worked example, formula, and ZenHodl's dated evidence.
Hedging means buying the other side of your own bet to lock a profit or cap a loss. The math, when it beats letting the position ride, and a correction...
Checked examples for independent −110 legs: combined payout, implied probability and expected stake loss. Distinguish probability gaps from ROI and...
Convert American, decimal and fractional odds with worked examples. Distinguish break-even implied probability, no-vig estimates and actual costs.
Calculate Kelly fractions for a binary contract with checked Python examples. Separate assumed probability, acquisition costs, fractional sizing and risk.
Worked bonus examples distinguish a cash credit from a stake-not-returned bonus bet, with explicit probability, odds and rollover assumptions.
Measure reliability in a defined prediction population, including the traded subset. Checked ECE bin endpoints, held-out calibration methods and dated...
Calculate conditional expected ROI at actual offered odds. Understand what −110 break-even means and why calibration, sample size and sizing do not prove...
Two days into the 2026 NHL playoffs. Our calibrated NHL model has Colorado and Tampa Bay as the Cup favorites, with Carolina close behind. Here's every...
Pre-tournament Monte Carlo simulation (April 2026): Argentina 26.2% to repeat, Brazil 18.6%, France 13.8% — championship odds for all 48 World Cup teams.
The same game is priced differently on Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM. The devigging math, a multi-venue scanner architecture, and what our...