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Backtesting Articles

14 posts tagged “backtesting”.

polymarket kalshi market-microstructure

Historical Polymarket and Kalshi Data: A Buyer’s Guide

Compare official history, free recorded books and ZenHodl archives. Check dates, depth, clocks, matching rules and license before choosing data.
prediction-markets calibration polymarket

Prediction-Market Calibration: What a Short MLB Study Shows

Review a historical MLB Brier-score analysis with corrected interpretation of calibration, repeated snapshots and near-terminal reference prices.
polymarket kalshi market-microstructure

How to Get Historical Polymarket Order Book Data

Find recorded Polymarket books through official data, free archives or paid files. Check the exact fields, clocks, captured window and gaps first.
polymarket backtesting historical-data

Backtesting Polymarket: Check Data Before Simulating Fills

Recorded Polymarket prices can replay decisions but not fills. See a checked 400-row sample, schema limits, and declared cost scenarios for backtests.
polymarket backtesting strategy

Polymarket Paper Trading: How to Test Strategies Without Risking Money in 2026

Polymarket has no built-in paper trading mode. Here are the real options for testing strategies without risk — Manifold Markets, historical price...
nhl backtesting calibration

We Backtested Our NHL Model on the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. It Hit 60.5% Across 86 Games.

Our NHL model replayed the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs on pre-playoff data: 52 of 86 games correct (60.5%), with the Cup Final correctly read as a coin flip.
mlb backtesting calibration

We Backtested Our MLB Model on the 2025 Postseason. It Hit 59.6% Across 47 Games.

Our MLB model replayed the entire 2025 postseason on pre-playoff data: 28 of 47 correct (59.6%). Full breakdown, including every missed ALCS pick.
nfl backtesting calibration

We Backtested Our NFL Model on the 2026 Playoffs. It Called Super Bowl LX Correctly.

Our NFL model replayed the 2025-26 playoffs on pre-playoff data only: 9 of 13 correct (69.2%), including Seattle over New England in Super Bowl LX.
nba backtesting calibration

We Backtested Our NBA Model on the 2025 Playoffs. It Called OKC Correctly All Season.

After the 2025 NBA Finals wrapped with OKC beating Indiana in seven games, we ran our NBA win-probability model on all 84 postseason games using only...
ncaaf calibration machine-learning

Why Our First CFB Model Lost Money (And the One Feature That Fixed It)

Our first college football model backtested at -2.1c/trade over 728 simulated positions. The missing feature, the diagnosis, and the corrected numbers.
ncaamb results calibration

Our NCAAMB Model's 2025-26 Season Report: 5,345 Games Backtested, 68.2% Accuracy, ECE 4.39%

Our college basketball model backtested on all 5,345 non-tournament games of 2025-26: 68.2% accuracy, Brier 0.2064, ECE 4.39%, full reliability table.
ncaamb backtesting calibration

We Backtested Our Model on the 2026 March Madness Bracket. It Hit 71.6%.

Our NCAAMB model replayed all 67 games of March Madness 2026 on pre-tournament data: 48 correct (71.6%), 3-for-3 on the Final Four. Every miss listed.
trading market-microstructure backtesting

99% of Your Backtested Edge Doesn't Exist: Execution Quality on Prediction Markets

We backtested 237 trade signals with and without execution constraints. 99% of theoretical profit vanished. Here's what actually kills your trades — and...
backtesting python strategy

How to Backtest a Sports Betting Strategy in Python (Without Fooling Yourself)

A practical guide to backtesting sports betting and prediction market strategies in Python. Covers the common pitfalls — survivorship bias, look-ahead...