SOCCER Model: Week 21 Analysis
Our SOCCER model identified 21 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 8W-13L for -$4.97 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 38.1%
- Average edge: -7.5c per trade
- Net P&L: -$4.97
Example Trades
- away: 51c entry, Lost (-$0.98)
- away: 50c entry, Won (+$1.00)
- home: 41c entry, Lost (-$1.00)
How the SOCCER Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.