SOCCER Model: Week 16 Analysis
Our SOCCER model identified 8 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 3W-5L for -$0.18 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 37.5%
- Average edge: -1.8c per trade
- Net P&L: -$0.18
Example Trades
- home: 28c entry, Lost (-$1.00)
- home: 34c entry, Won (+$1.94)
- away: 32c entry, Lost (-$1.00)
How the SOCCER Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.