NBA Basketball Model: Week 16 Analysis
Our NBA Basketball model identified 12 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 6W-6L for -$10.34 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 50.0%
- Average edge: -15.7c per trade
- Net P&L: -$10.34
Example Trades
- nuggets: 69c entry, Won (+$1.28)
- trailblazers: 61c entry, Won (+$2.05)
- rockets: 72c entry, Lost (-$3.00)
How the NBA Basketball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.