NBA Basketball Model: Week 15 Analysis
Our NBA Basketball model identified 6 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 2W-4L for +$31.04 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 33.3%
- Average edge: -17.0c per trade
- Net P&L: +$31.04
Example Trades
- rockets: 72c entry, Won (+$1.17)
- warriors: 47c entry, Lost (-$3.00)
- pelicans: 50c entry, Lost (-$3.18)
How the NBA Basketball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.