MLB Baseball Model: Week 25 Analysis
Our MLB Baseball model identified 63 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 34W-29L for -$6.10 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 54.0%
- Average edge: -3.4c per trade
- Net P&L: -$6.10
Example Trades
- sanfranciscogiants: 84c entry, Won (+$0.32)
- coloradorockies: 67c entry, Won (+$0.66)
- losangelesdodgers: 27c entry, Lost (-$1.08)
How the MLB Baseball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.