MLB Baseball Model: Week 24 Analysis
Our MLB Baseball model identified 27 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 12W-15L for -$1.01 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 44.4%
- Average edge: -10.0c per trade
- Net P&L: -$1.01
Example Trades
- losangelesangels: 76c entry, Won (+$0.48)
- coloradorockies: 60c entry, Lost (-$1.20)
- philadelphiaphillies: 79c entry, Won (+$0.42)
How the MLB Baseball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.