ATP Model: Week 16 Analysis
Our ATP model identified 18 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 9W-9L for -$0.03 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 50.0%
- Average edge: -1.5c per trade
- Net P&L: -$0.03
Example Trades
- Mena F.: 54c entry, Lost (-$1.08)
- Siegemund L.: 49c entry, Lost (-$1.47)
- Sinner J.: 37c entry, Won (+$2.04)
How the ATP Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.