ZenHodl vs Pinnacle Closing Line

{
  "metrics": {
    "auxiliary": [
      "Brier score",
      "Log loss",
      "Accuracy"
    ],
    "confidence_interval": "95% bootstrap CI on ECE with 1000 resamples, published alongside point estimate",
    "ece_formula": "Sum over bins of |bin_avg_pred - bin_avg_outcome| weighted by bin sample fraction",
    "headline": "Expected Calibration Error (ECE), 10 equal-width bins"
  },
  "model_versioning": {
    "policy": "ZenHodl model weights as deployed at T-60 of each game are what counts. Each prediction row in raw.jsonl includes the model version ID so post-hoc retrains do not invalidate prior predictions.",
    "retrains_during_window": "Permitted. Disclosed in the per-game row\u0027s model_version field."
  },
  "opponent": "pinnacle",
  "opponent_display_name": "Pinnacle",
  "opponent_tagline": "the canonically-sharpest sportsbook\u0027s closing line",
  "publication": {
    "live_url": "https://zenhodl.net/benchmarks/nba-playoffs-2026-vs-pinnacle",
    "manifest_file": "https://zenhodl.net/benchmarks/nba-playoffs-2026-vs-pinnacle/manifest.json",
    "raw_data_jsonl": "https://zenhodl.net/benchmarks/nba-playoffs-2026-vs-pinnacle/raw.jsonl",
    "we_publish_when_we_lose": true
  },
  "published_at": "2026-05-08T01:30:00Z",
  "rule_changes": "Once this manifest\u0027s SHA-256 hash is broadcast on Polygon, the rules above are frozen. If ZenHodl edits this file at any later point, the on-chain hash will not match the served file. Anyone can verify by hashing the served manifest.json and comparing to the on-chain transaction data field.",
  "scope": {
    "first_eligible_game_after": "2026-05-08T02:00:00Z",
    "last_eligible_game_before": "2026-06-25T00:00:00Z",
    "sport": "NBA",
    "window": "2026 Conference Semifinals through Finals (inclusive)"
  },
  "snapshot": {
    "matching": "Each NBA game matched to its Pinnacle market by team-name resolution (Odds API full team name \u2192 ZenHodl tricode via core/api/benchmarks/sports.py team_map). Matching script published in this repo so the join is auditable.",
    "pinnacle_source": "Pinnacle two-way moneyline (game-winner H2H market) via The Odds API at https://api.the-odds-api.com/v4. Decimal odds are multiplicatively devigged to remove Pinnacle\u0027s overround (typically 2-5pp on NBA), producing a true implied probability for the home side.",
    "tie_handling": "If either source is unavailable at T-60, the game is excluded from BOTH model\u0027s metrics. Recorded with status=\u0027zenhodl_unavailable\u0027 or \u0027polymarket_unavailable\u0027 (used as the generic opponent-unavailable status flag) in the public raw.jsonl, with the actual cause in the row\u0027s opponent_error field.",
    "timing": "Both predictions captured no later than T-60 minutes before official tip-off",
    "zenhodl_source": "ZenHodl pregame win probability via internal SignalEngine.get_pregame_predictions(\u0027NBA\u0027)"
  },
  "title": "ZenHodl vs Pinnacle Closing Line \u2014 NBA Playoffs 2026 Calibration Benchmark",
  "version": "1.0",
  "why_pinnacle": "Pinnacle is the canonically-sharpest sportsbook in the industry \u2014 every CLV claim in traditional sports analytics is implicitly benchmarked against Pinnacle\u0027s closing line. Their volume is dominated by syndicate bettors and their margins are the lowest in the business. Beating Pinnacle on calibration is the gold-standard demonstration of forecasting skill in a way actual bettors recognize."
}