WTA Model: Week 24 Analysis
Our WTA model identified 4 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 1W-3L for -$1.45 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 25.0%
- Average edge: -9.2c per trade
- Net P&L: -$1.45
Example Trades
- Darja Semenistaja: 36c entry, Lost (-$1.17)
- Kamilla Rakhimova: 33c entry, Lost (-$1.08)
- Leyre Romero Gormaz: 36c entry, Won (+$2.08)
How the WTA Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.