10 posts tagged “research”.
ZenHodl: $3.12B headline notional vs $1.48B taker cash across 15,808,966 Kalshi sports prints we captured (May 15 - Sep 6, 2026).
See how Kalshi's quoted spread changes with the liquidity behind the quote, across 553,843 order-book snapshots — and why depth beats spread.
Profit leaderboards show ex-post winners. We hold the complete decoded tape of Polymarket's invisible parlay market — every loser included — so we...
Polymarket combos have no public listings, no order book, and no trade feed. We reconstructed the entire market from on-chain data — ~$9.5M of parlay...
A dated research snapshot on prediction-market liquidity, calibration, and execution across Polymarket and Kalshi — with current evidence caveats.
We time-aligned sampled Kalshi and Polymarket books on the same MLB games for 16 days. Polymarket led on all 16 and divergences half-closed in ~34...
Compare Polymarket price history, recorded book quotes and L2 depth for backtests. Check clocks, costs and capture gaps before choosing a dataset.
A year of live trading data on Polymarket — what it reveals about sports prediction market efficiency, where systematic mispricing persists, and where the...
Why the pre-committed NBA Playoffs benchmark starts at the Conference Semis: adding First Round after tip-off would un-freeze a frozen test.
We surveyed 21 sports prediction providers — KenPom, BetQL, Sportradar, FiveThirtyEight, MoneyPuck, OddsJam, and 15 others — for the one number a...