10 posts tagged “research”.
ZenHodl: $3.12B headline notional vs $1.48B taker cash across 15,808,966 Kalshi sports prints we captured (May 15 - Sep 6, 2026).
A dated two-day Kalshi study buckets 553,843 sampled quotes by recorded best-level notional. These are liquidity buckets, not order-size or fill-cost tests.
Profit leaderboards show ex-post winners. We hold the complete decoded tape of Polymarket's invisible parlay market — every loser included — so we...
Polymarket combos have no public listings, no order book, and no trade feed. We reconstructed the entire market from on-chain data — ~$9.5M of parlay...
An October 2026 snapshot of ZenHodl’s Polymarket, Kalshi, MLB and combo releases, with exact catalog counts, distinct clocks and measured capture limits.
Corrected Oct 2026: a five-sport study reverses this MLB study's 32-second direction, and 1-second data shows the venues move within ~1 s.
Recorded Polymarket prices can replay decisions but not fills. See a checked 400-row sample, schema limits, and declared cost scenarios for backtests.
A year of live trading data on Polymarket — what it reveals about sports prediction market efficiency, where systematic mispricing persists, and where the...
Why the pre-committed NBA Playoffs benchmark starts at the Conference Semis: adding First Round after tip-off would un-freeze a frozen test.
Our April 2026 survey of selected prediction sources examined public calibration evidence. Read the dated findings, criteria and limits.