5 posts tagged “mlb”.
We ran the numbers on our own $9 MLB matched-book tryout: cross-venue spread, a shared capture gap, and why a settlement-label check isn't a prediction.
Buy just the Kalshi order-book slice you study: ATP/WTA/ITF tennis, MLB, WNBA, or LoL/CS2 esports — $39 each, same live capture as the full tape.
Kalshi L2 depth (up to 20 levels/side) plus a deduplicated trade tape with taker side, from a venue that doesn't retain its book — sold as dated vintages...
We time-aligned sampled Kalshi and Polymarket books on the same MLB games for 16 days. Polymarket led on all 16 and divergences half-closed in ~34...
Our MLB model replayed the entire 2025 postseason on pre-playoff data: 28 of 47 correct (59.6%). Full breakdown, including every missed ALCS pick.