4 posts tagged “market efficiency”.
Review a historical MLB Brier-score analysis with corrected interpretation of calibration, repeated snapshots and near-terminal reference prices.
The same game trades on Polymarket and Kalshi, so there must be free cross-venue arbitrage, right? A sampled MLB matched book shows how rare positive...
A year of live trading data on Polymarket — what it reveals about sports prediction market efficiency, where systematic mispricing persists, and where the...
A 2026 investigation of insider trading in prediction markets. We examine the 2024 Polymarket election dispute, academic studies of PredictIt...