The 2026 NHL playoffs tipped off two days ago. Fifteen first-round games are in the books. Every series has at least one result. And already the bracket is taking shape in ways that reorder the Cup odds.
We ran our NHL model through a 50,000-simulation Monte Carlo, seeded with current series state as of April 22, 2026 plus our ELO ratings computed from every game played this season plus the last four. Here's what the model is telling us today.
The Leaderboard: Every Team's Championship Probability
| Rank | Team | ELO | Cup probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | COL Avalanche | 1572 | 19.6% |
| 2 | TB Lightning | 1585 | 18.8% |
| 3 | CAR Hurricanes | 1566 | 14.2% |
| 4 | DAL Stars | 1561 | 11.9% |
| 5 | EDM Oilers | 1540 | 10.7% |
| 6 | BOS Bruins | 1536 | 6.1% |
| 7 | BUF Sabres | 1539 | 6.0% |
| 8 | PIT Penguins | 1528 | 4.3% |
| 9 | UTA Hockey Club | 1508 | 2.7% |
| 10 | MIN Wild | 1516 | 1.4% |
| 11 | VGK Golden Knights | 1492 | 1.4% |
| 12 | OTT Senators | 1513 | 1.3% |
| 13 | MTL Canadiens | 1489 | 0.8% |
| 14 | LA Kings | 1503 | 0.5% |
| 15 | PHI Flyers | 1438 | 0.3% |
| 16 | ANA Ducks | 1440 | 0.1% |
How These Numbers Are Built
Each simulation does exactly one thing: plays out the remaining playoffs, start to finish, from today's state.
- Round 1 starts from the current scoreline (e.g., Colorado is already up 2-0 on LA, so the remaining 5-game bounce comes from there)
- Each game uses the ELO-based pre-game win probability with +40 HFA
- Best-of-seven home-away pattern is 2-2-1-1-1
- Winners advance through the bracket (NHL uses bracket format, not reseeding)
- Conference Finals + Stanley Cup Final simulated game-by-game
- Repeat 50,000 times
The percentages you see are simply the fraction of simulations each team hoists the Cup.
Current Round 1 Series-Win Probabilities
| Series | State | Series win prob |
|---|---|---|
| East: TB vs MTL | 1-1 | TB 71.8% / MTL 28.2% |
| East: BUF vs BOS | 1-1 | BUF 49.1% / BOS 50.8% |
| East: CAR vs OTT | CAR 1-0 | CAR 78.0% / OTT 22.0% |
| East: PIT vs PHI | PHI 1-0 | PIT 59.6% / PHI 40.4% |
| West: COL vs LA | COL 2-0 | COL 90.1% / LA 9.9% |
| West: VGK vs UTA | 1-1 | VGK 44.2% / UTA 55.8% |
| West: DAL vs MIN | DAL 1-0 | DAL 76.5% / MIN 23.5% |
| West: EDM vs ANA | EDM 1-0 | EDM 87.4% / ANA 12.6% |
Two series where the lower seed is actually favored going forward:
- UTA over VGK (55.8%): Utah has been the stronger team by ELO late in the season and showed it by winning Game 2 on the road after dropping Game 1. Model thinks they complete the upset.
- BOS over BUF (50.8%): A classic coin-flip series where the underdog is a hair better. Model has Boston with a razor-thin edge.
The Three Takes That Disagree With the Consensus
Where the model is off from the public futures market this week:
1. Colorado is the Cup favorite. Most books have Tampa Bay as the preseason and current favorite to win the 2026 Cup. Our model has Colorado a hair ahead (19.6% vs 18.8%) — because Colorado is already up 2-0 in their series while Tampa is tied 1-1. In a bracket where the #1 job is survival, being two wins from the next round matters. Tampa's higher ELO would have mattered more on Selection Day; it matters less once games start being played.
2. Edmonton is undervalued. The Oilers are at 10.7% in our model. Most futures pages list them around 7-9%. The gap: Edmonton's ELO is only 1540 — mid-pack by playoff-team standards — but they're up 1-0 on Anaheim and sit on the easier side of the West bracket (they'd face the VGK/UTA winner in Round 2, not COL). The bracket path matters.
3. Vegas is tapped out. Our model has Vegas at 1.4% — essentially an afterthought for the Cup. Most public odds still have them in the 4-6% zone. The math isn't complicated: they're facing a team (Utah) that's actually stronger than them by ELO, the series is tied, and if they do advance they get Colorado. That's a hard path.
Where We Disagree With Ourselves
Two flags the backtest-honesty pattern requires us to raise:
1. Vegas/Utah series modeling is noisy. Utah's first playoff run as a franchise means our ELO has less-than-ideal priors for how they handle the postseason pressure. We're treating them as a strong regular-season team because that's what the data says, but there's an implicit uncertainty band here we're not quantifying.
2. We don't adjust for goaltender-specific factors. NHL playoffs are notoriously goalie-driven. A hot backup goalie can swing a series 10-15 ELO points. Our current model uses team-level save-percentage features, not individual-goalie performance. Last year's model missed badly on the Florida-Edmonton Final partly because of exactly this.
What the Model Got Right Last Year
Not that it changes the 2026 picture, but for context: our 2024-25 Stanley Cup playoffs retrospective showed the model hitting 60.5% accuracy across 86 games — roughly in line with FiveThirtyEight and MoneyPuck's historical accuracy. Full breakdown is in the 2024-25 retrospective.
For the Cup final specifically last year: the model had FLA vs EDM as essentially coin-flip. Florida won the series 4-2. Model went 3-3 on games, exactly what you'd expect for a coin-flip prediction.
What to Watch This Week
Five games that will most move the 2026 Cup odds in the next 48 hours:
- Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia Game 3 (tonight, @ PHI) — Philly is the underdog but leads 1-0. If they take Game 3 at home, their series win probability jumps above 60% and their Cup odds triple.
- Minnesota vs Dallas Game 3 (tonight, @ MIN) — Dallas at 11.9% to win the Cup is heavily dependent on finishing this series in 5 or 6. If Minnesota steals Game 3, Dallas's Cup odds drop to ~8-9%.
- Edmonton vs Anaheim Game 2 (tonight, @ EDM) — If Edmonton sweeps the first two games, their Cup odds jump from 10.7% to roughly 13%. If Anaheim wins and takes home-ice to Game 4, Edmonton drops to ~7%.
- Tampa Bay vs Montreal Game 3 (tomorrow, @ MTL) — Montreal has been the pleasant surprise of Round 1. If they hold serve at home, the series odds flip to MTL at ~55%, and Tampa's Cup odds fall below Colorado's convincingly.
- Utah vs Vegas Game 3 (tomorrow, @ VGK) — If Utah wins in Vegas, the West bracket gets a lot more chaotic (the UTA-led side would face the DAL-MIN winner in Round 2).
Updates
This post is current as of April 22, 2026. We'll republish an updated version after Round 1 concludes (early May), after the Conference Finals set (mid-May), and once we know the two teams that reach the Cup Final.
Our model's training ECE is 6.59% — meaning when the model says 70% confidence, the team wins about 70% of the time historically. Playoff-only ECE is always noisier on small samples, but the calibration signal is there.
If you want to pull live NHL edges via API for your own bracket predictions, you can do that with a 7-day free trial — no credit card required.
Related Reading
- Stanley Cup 2025 Retrospective — How our model did last year (86 games, 60.5% accuracy).
- How to Build an NHL Prediction Model — The ELO + Monte Carlo pipeline behind this futures analysis.
- 2026 FIFA World Cup Futures — Championship probabilities for 48 national teams.
- UCL 2025-26 Final Preview — Champions League semifinals and Final probabilities.
- Can You Actually Win at Sports Betting Long Term? — The math behind Kelly sizing and edge.
Data: ESPN NHL scoreboards (public); ELO computed with K=8, HFA=40 across 2021-22 through 2025-26 regular seasons; Monte Carlo with 50,000 trials; current series state as of April 22, 2026, 6pm ET. Updated weekly through the Stanley Cup Final.