WTA Model: Week 18 Analysis
Our WTA model identified 16 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 6W-10L for -$8.55 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 37.5%
- Average edge: -7.2c per trade
- Net P&L: -$8.55
Example Trades
- Zheng Qinwen: 49c entry, Lost (-$2.60)
- Katerina Siniakova: 48c entry, Lost (-$2.60)
- Iga Swiatek: 49c entry, Lost (-$2.60)
How the WTA Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.