SOCCER Model: Week 20 Analysis
Our SOCCER model identified 15 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 6W-9L for -$0.90 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 40.0%
- Average edge: -1.6c per trade
- Net P&L: -$0.90
Example Trades
- away: 46c entry, Lost (-$1.00)
- home: 32c entry, Lost (-$1.00)
- home: 27c entry, Won (+$2.52)
How the SOCCER Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.