NBA Basketball Model: Week 20 Analysis
Our NBA Basketball model identified 8 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 1W-7L for -$5.93 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 12.5%
- Average edge: -20.5c per trade
- Net P&L: -$5.93
Example Trades
- spurs: 34c entry, Lost (-$1.11)
- pistons: 30c entry, Lost (-$1.32)
- timberwolves: 32c entry, Lost (-$1.02)
How the NBA Basketball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.