NBA Basketball Model: Week 18 Analysis
Our NBA Basketball model identified 11 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 7W-4L for -$2.81 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 63.6%
- Average edge: -5.3c per trade
- Net P&L: -$2.81
Example Trades
- trailblazers: 72c entry, Lost (-$2.88)
- trailblazers: 68c entry, Lost (-$2.88)
- timberwolves: 59c entry, Won (+$2.15)
How the NBA Basketball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.