MLB Baseball Model: Week 20 Analysis
Our MLB Baseball model identified 29 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 18W-11L for +$2.18 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 62.1%
- Average edge: 2.3c per trade
- Net P&L: +$2.18
Example Trades
- detroittigers: 45c entry, Won (+$1.76)
- arizonadiamondbacks: 70c entry, Won (+$0.63)
- pittsburghpirates: 48c entry, Lost (-$1.53)
How the MLB Baseball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.