MLB Baseball Model: Week 19 Analysis
Our MLB Baseball model identified 29 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 12W-17L for -$5.53 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 41.4%
- Average edge: -3.6c per trade
- Net P&L: -$5.53
Example Trades
- detroittigers: 74c entry, Won (+$0.53)
- losangelesangels: 60c entry, Lost (-$1.26)
- kansascityroyals: 35c entry, Won (+$2.12)
How the MLB Baseball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.