MLB Baseball Model: Week 18 Analysis
Our MLB Baseball model identified 17 tradeable edges this week on Polymarket, going 4W-13L for -$12.65 net profit.
Results
- Win rate: 23.5%
- Average edge: -29.1c per trade
- Net P&L: -$12.65
Example Trades
- cincinnatireds: 48c entry, Lost (-$1.02)
- stlouiscardinals: 51c entry, Lost (-$1.10)
- stlouiscardinals: 51c entry, Lost (-$1.10)
How the MLB Baseball Model Works
The model predicts win probability from live game state — score differential, time remaining, period, and Elo ratings. It never sees market prices during training, so when it disagrees with the market by 8c+, that divergence is a real signal.